New virus theories (end of the world add on) General forum

15 replies. Last post: 2020-03-28

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New virus theories (end of the world add on)
  • Be a traffic light at 2020-01-26

    My theory on the Wuhan coronavirus and to generate more

    1. Mix animals together in a stressful place, eg a farm market with butchers

    2. Next cut and mix common viruses to make a new one (or lots of permutations)

    3. Be in contract with potential hosts that can regenerate and spread it (humans)

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-12

    And if managing exposure to a new virus

    would it be best to allow 20% to get it ?

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-15

    In the UK an expert has said that 60% should get it to prevent it from spreading, this fits a transmission rate of 2.5

    Transmission rates in other countries may vary, have not found any data yet

    1-(1/2.5) = 0.6

    Transmission from body is via coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing (more so if lungs are uncomfortable)

    Transfer is via hands, shared surfaces / air, (aeroplanes recycled air ?), food

    Receive it eating, kissing, hand shaking, breathing

    So don’t travel to dine at a business meeting and talk

    Do school children talk while eating?

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-20

    1918 virus data

    suggests unborn babies will suffer and their children also, (maybe children of boys and children of daughters of girls)

    It may mutate and have 3 waves

    Maybe strong immunity if you catch it 3 times

  • ypercube at 2020-03-20

    Is this virus similar to the 1918 one?

    That’s the first time I hear something like that. 

    Also we have much more tools and research available since 100 years ago that I seriously doubt that the effects will be similar. 

  • Sighris at 2020-03-20

    Also YperCube, we have antibiotics now, which do not directly affect virus infections but can cure infections which can come along as a side effect.  More info here: https://www.cantonrep.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-pandemic-vs-spanish-flu--then-and-now 


     

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-21

    new spreadsheet estimation (no allowance for real world)

    2019-11-10 back calculated start date for 1 infection

    daily reinfection attempt of 12% (fixed population of 7.7 billion, assume all will be infected)

    mortality rate of 0.4% (of assumed infections)

    2020-05-09 peak of 100 000 deaths a day

    2020-06-30 deaths drop to 600 a day


  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-24

    Be Vigilant (word from 1918 survivor), in the panic expect what was the unexpected

    Biggest danger is rapid transit systems (spread it to more, faster, further distances)

    Recommend that all mass travellers wear masks and gloves and only if body temperature is below 100 F

    Also reduce speed limits rail and road (to reduce spread and for safety reasons)

    Also use the coolest workers (body temperature is quick to measure)

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-25

    Assume the virus is multipartite and don’t collect overlapping parts

    Eg virus =abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

    You have abcdef on day 1-6

    You get nopqrst for days 2-10

    tuvwxyz days 4-9

    Efghijklmn day 6-12

    They reassemble full version which lasts for days 7-21

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-25

    Two versions 30% s-type and 70% s-type

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-25

    S-type and l-type (the worse one)

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-27

    Would like to see cryptocurrency creation switched to projects to solve the virus

    such as folding@home

    Maybe need government powers

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-27

    minimum safe distances from someone with head at same height (do tall people catch it later?)

    breathing    1m

    coughing    2m

    talking        3m (at a guess, it depends on background noise and hearing)

    sneezing    6m

  • Carroll at 2020-03-28

    Can you send evidence of what you say, instead of babling by yourself? ;)

    Here is an interesting video on SIR simulation variants, maybe you can post your owns :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs by 3b1b

  • Be a traffic light at 2020-03-28

    Babbling not babling

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