I've created this thread so that RoRoRo can post his monte-carlo predictions for the outcome (based purely on players' ratings at the times he makes the simulations).

Good luck all!

Already completed matches:

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 0/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1bennok(1797)-________000.61%0.17%2imperatore(1993)_-_______0013.73%1.43%3alain(1852)__-______001.50%0.23%4Hartmut(1888)___-_____002.84%0.56%5Ray Garrison(1887)____-____002.40%0.70%6Kevin Gong(2081)_____-___0035.48%2.44%7Adam Dzedzej(1745)______-__000.17%0.05%8maraca(2060)_______-_0028.25%2.09%9vayamos(1978)________-0010.95%1.46%

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 1/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1maraca(2068)-___2____2034.48%2.11%2bennok(1797)_-_______000.44%0.11%3imperatore(1993)__-______0012.25%1.42%4alain(1852)___-_____001.56%0.20%5Hartmut(1880)0___-____000.87%0.23%6Ray Garrison(1887)_____-___002.40%0.43%7Kevin Gong(2081)______-__0034.01%2.09%8Adam Dzedzej(1740)_______-_000.17%0.06%9vayamos(1979)________-0010.29%1.26%

Newly completed matches:

• alain 0 - 2 Hartmut

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 2/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1maraca(2068)-2_______2435.86%2.39%2Hartmut(1894)0-__2____201.39%0.38%3bennok(1797)__-______000.41%0.15%4imperatore(1993)___-_____0012.41%1.38%5alain(1838)_0__-____000.61%0.08%6Ray Garrison(1887)_____-___002.79%0.39%7Kevin Gong(2081)______-__0032.52%2.20%8Adam Dzedzej(1753)_______-_000.18%0.06%9vayamos(1979)________-0010.09%1.32%

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 3/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1maraca(2068)-_2______2433.75%2.03%2vayamos(1997)_-2______2416.29%1.56%3Hartmut(1883)00-__2___200.22%0.04%4bennok(1797)___-_____000.45%0.09%5imperatore(1993)____-____0011.73%1.40%6alain(1838)__0__-___000.42%0.07%7Ray Garrison(1887)______-__002.27%0.41%8Kevin Gong(2081)_______-_0031.33%1.95%9Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.16%0.04%

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 Kevin Gong

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 4/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Kevin Gong(2088)-__2_____2436.11%2.17%2maraca(2068)_-_2_____2430.71%2.20%3vayamos(2006)__-2_____2416.02%1.54%4Hartmut(1876)000-__2__200.01%05bennok(1797)____-____000.45%0.11%6imperatore(1993)_____-___0010.75%1.13%7alain(1838)___0__-__000.36%0.07%8Ray Garrison(1887)_______-_002.14%0.37%9Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.14%0.03%

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 2 - 0 Ray Garrison
• imperatore 2 - 0 Hartmut
• alain 2 - 0 Ray Garrison

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 7/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Hartmut(1881)-00002_2_44002imperatore(2004)2-_______2815.20%1.70%3Kevin Gong(2088)2_-______2835.55%2.18%4maraca(2068)2__-_____2829.32%1.90%5vayamos(2006)2___-____2815.00%1.61%6alain(1855)0____-_2_201.02%0.15%7bennok(1797)______-__000.27%0.12%8Ray Garrison(1854)0____0_-_000.15%0.04%9Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.19%0.04%

Newly completed matches:

• alain 0 - 2 Kevin Gong

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 8/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Kevin Gong(2094)-2___2___41240.57%2.21%2Hartmut(1881)0-0002_2_44003imperatore(2004)_2-______2813.63%1.29%4maraca(2068)_2_-_____2827.54%2.08%5vayamos(2006)_2__-____2814.18%1.66%6alain(1849)00___-_2_200.26%0.07%7bennok(1797)______-__000.47%0.09%8Ray Garrison(1854)_0___0_-_000.14%09Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.08%0.03%

Newly completed matches:

• alain 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 9/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Kevin Gong(2094)-_2__2___41238.94%2.23%2vayamos(2015)_-2__2___41218.05%1.81%3Hartmut(1881)00-002_2_44004imperatore(2004)__2-_____2813.05%1.55%5maraca(2068)__2_-____2826.18%2.19%6alain(1840)000__-_2_200.01%07bennok(1797)______-__000.34%0.06%8Ray Garrison(1854)__0__0_-_000.10%09Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.11%0.03%

Newly completed matches:

• Kevin Gong 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 10/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2034)-22__2___62042.95%3.07%2Kevin Gong(2075)0-2__2___41211.46%2.05%3Hartmut(1881)00-002_2_44004imperatore(2004)__2-_____2813.69%1.70%5maraca(2068)__2_-____2827.34%2.71%6alain(1840)000__-_2_200.01%07bennok(1797)______-__000.34%0.08%8Ray Garrison(1854)__0__0_-_000.11%0.02%9Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.11%0.04%

Newly completed matches:

• imperatore 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 11/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2048)-222_2___82462.79%2.99%2Kevin Gong(2075)0-2__2___4125.83%1.99%3Hartmut(1881)00-002_2_44004imperatore(1990)0_2-_____281.62%0.48%5maraca(2068)__2_-____2826.22%2.55%6alain(1840)000__-_2_20007bennok(1797)______-__000.21%0.05%8Ray Garrison(1854)__0__0_-_000.12%09Adam Dzedzej(1753)________-000.09%0.02%

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 0 - 2 vayamos
• Hartmut 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 13/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2064)-22222___103296.20%0.11%2Hartmut(1891)0-0002_2264003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4161.67%0.03%4imperatore(1990)02_-_____2120.69%0.01%5maraca(2052)02__-____2121.22%0.01%6alain(1840)000__-_2_20007bennok(1797)______-__000.09%0.05%8Ray Garrison(1854)_0___0_-_000.02%0.01%9Adam Dzedzej(1743)_0______-0000.02%

Newly completed matches:

• Adam Dzedzej 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 14/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2123298.22%0.06%2Hartmut(1891)0-0002_2264003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4160.83%04imperatore(1990)02_-_____2120.22%0.02%5maraca(2052)02__-____2120.55%0.03%6alain(1840)000__-_2_20007bennok(1797)______-__000.10%0.03%8Ray Garrison(1854)_0___0_-_000.02%09Adam Dzedzej(1739)00______-0000

Newly completed matches:

• alain 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 15/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2123698.20%0.04%2Hartmut(1891)0-0002_2264003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4160.65%0.01%4maraca(2059)02_-_2___4160.77%0.02%5imperatore(1990)02__-____2120.15%0.01%6alain(1833)0000_-_2_20007bennok(1797)______-__000.17%08Ray Garrison(1854)_0___0_-_000.02%09Adam Dzedzej(1739)00______-0000

Newly completed matches:

• imperatore 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 16/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2124098.22%0.09%2Hartmut(1891)0-0002_2264003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4160.65%04maraca(2059)02_-_2___4160.63%0.04%5imperatore(1996)02__-___24120.20%06alain(1833)0000_-_2_20007bennok(1797)______-__000.17%0.06%8Ray Garrison(1854)_0___0_-_000.04%09Adam Dzedzej(1733)00__0___-0000

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 17/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2124098.14%0.09%2Hartmut(1891)0-00022_268003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4160.71%0.05%4maraca(2059)02_-_2___4160.68%0.01%5imperatore(1996)02__-___24120.18%06alain(1833)0000_-2__24007Ray Garrison(1864)_0___0-_2200.07%0.01%8bennok(1797)_______-_000.13%0.05%9Adam Dzedzej(1723)00__0_0_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• alain 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 18/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2124498.00%0.09%2Hartmut(1891)0-00022_2612003Kevin Gong(2075)02-__2___4200.80%0.02%4maraca(2059)02_-_2___4200.75%0.03%5imperatore(1996)02__-___24120.25%0.01%6alain(1844)0000_-2_244007Ray Garrison(1864)_0___0-_2200.04%08bennok(1797)_______-_000.07%0.06%9Adam Dzedzej(1712)00__000_-0000

Is there a flaw with Ro Ro's predictions? I note that I had a zero percent chance of tying for first until I won against Adam Dzedzej, then my chances went up from zero percent to .01%. I thought zero percent meant that I had absolutely no chance, but apparently not!

There's a wide range of possibilities between 0.01% and 0.005% and about the same amount of possible results between 0.005% and 0.001%, and perhaps even more between 0.001% and 0.

I guess, the first interval will be displayed as 0.01, the lower ones all go into the “0” category.

Of course it's a big difference between zero and 1:10,000,000

With a chance of zero, no one would play lottery. One to ten Million seems a realistic chance to go for.

Ro could print your minimal chance as “0.00” and no chance as “0”. Does that show an intuitive difference to you, or would you complain that 0 and 0.00 is the same number ?

Newly completed matches:

• imperatore 0 - 2 alain

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 19/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2068)-22222__2124898.18%0.15%2Hartmut(1891)0-20002_2616003alain(1866)00-0022_2612004Kevin Gong(2075)022-_____4240.84%0.04%5maraca(2059)022_-____4240.70%0.07%6imperatore(1974)020__-__241200.01%7Ray Garrison(1864)_00___-_2200.04%08bennok(1797)_______-_000.09%0.05%9Adam Dzedzej(1712)000__00_-0000

There are only 10000 = 100*100 simulations. '0' is only output if none of them yield a win. If one of them yields a win, then '0.01%' will be printed. There is no '0.00%' possibility currently. I could crank up the number of simulations, but that will still permit someone to go from '0' to '0.00%'. However, I'm more tempted to crank down the printed precision, which would also permit the output of a '0.0%' rather than '0', but with no higher computational cost.

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 0 - 2 vayamos

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 20/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-222222_2145299.89%0.02%2Hartmut(1891)0-20002_2616003alain(1866)00-0022_2612004Kevin Gong(2075)022-_____42400.01%5maraca(2059)022_-____42400.01%6imperatore(1974)020__-__2412007Ray Garrison(1857)000___-_220008bennok(1797)_______-_000.10%0.02%9Adam Dzedzej(1712)000__00_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• bennok 0 - 2 Hartmut

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 21/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-222222_2145699.99%02Hartmut(1902)0-2000222816003alain(1866)00-0022_2612004Kevin Gong(2075)022-_____428005maraca(2059)022_-____428006imperatore(1974)020__-__2416007Ray Garrison(1857)000___-_220008bennok(1786)_0_____-_000.01%09Adam Dzedzej(1712)000__00_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• Kevin Gong 2 - 0 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 22/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-222222_2146099.98%02Hartmut(1902)0-0200222816003Kevin Gong(2090)02-22____636004alain(1866)000-022_2612005maraca(2044)0202-____428006imperatore(1974)02_0_-__2416007Ray Garrison(1857)00_0__-_220008bennok(1786)_0_____-_000.02%09Adam Dzedzej(1712)00_0_00_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• Kevin Gong 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 23/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-222222_2146499.99%02Kevin Gong(2093)0-222___2836003Hartmut(1902)00-200222816004alain(1866)000-022_2612005maraca(2044)0022-____428006imperatore(1974)0_20_-__2416007Ray Garrison(1857)0_00__-_220008bennok(1786)__0____-_000.01%09Adam Dzedzej(1709)0000_00_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• imperatore 0 - 2 Kevin Gong

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 24/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-222222_21468100.00%02Kevin Gong(2103)0-2222__21044003Hartmut(1902)00-200222816004alain(1866)000-022_2612005maraca(2044)0022-____428006imperatore(1964)0020_-__2416007Ray Garrison(1857)0_00__-_220008bennok(1786)__0____-_000.00%09Adam Dzedzej(1709)0000_00_-0000

Newly completed matches:

• bennok 2 - 0 Adam Dzedzej

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 25/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-22222_22146899.98%02Kevin Gong(2103)0-2222__21044003Hartmut(1902)00-200222820004alain(1866)000-02_22612005maraca(2044)0022-____428006imperatore(1964)0020_-__2416007bennok(1798)__0___-_2200.02%08Ray Garrison(1857)0_00___-220009Adam Dzedzej(1697)0000_000-0000

Newly completed matches:

• bennok 0 - 2 alain
• Ray Garrison 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 27/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2075)-22222_221476100.00%02Kevin Gong(2103)0-2222__21052003Hartmut(1902)00-200222824004alain(1878)000-02222816005maraca(2052)0022-__2_636006imperatore(1964)0020_-__2416007bennok(1786)__00__-_220008Ray Garrison(1849)0_000__-220009Adam Dzedzej(1697)0000_000-0000

Newly completed matches:

• imperatore 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 32/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2080)-222222221696100.00%02Kevin Gong(2107)0-22222_21268003maraca(2064)00-222_2_852004imperatore(1969)000-02222824005alain(1878)0002-0222824006Hartmut(1902)00002-222824007bennok(1770)00_000-_220008Ray Garrison(1839)0_0000_-220009Adam Dzedzej(1697)00_00000-0000

Newly completed matches:

• Adam Dzedzej 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 34/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2080)-2222222216104100.00%02Kevin Gong(2112)0-22222221476003maraca(2048)00-222_221052004imperatore(1969)000-02222824005alain(1878)0002-0222824006Hartmut(1902)00002-222824007bennok(1770)00_000-_220008Ray Garrison(1834)000000_-220009Adam Dzedzej(1694)00000000-0000

Newly completed matches:

• bennok 0 - 2 maraca

Tournament: loa.ch.10.1.1

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 36/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1vayamos(2092)-2222222216112100.00%02Kevin Gong(2112)0-22222221484003maraca(2054)00-2222221260004imperatore(1969)000-02222828005alain(1878)0002-0222828006Hartmut(1902)00002-222828007Ray Garrison(1847)000000-2244008bennok(1753)0000000-220009Adam Dzedzej(1694)00000000-0000

Well, congratulations to vayamos!

Easy win for Vayamos.

Impressive performance. All his games won in less than 40 moves, and some against the best players in less than 30 moves.

I haver never seen something like this since Mona won the pbmserv tournament.

Maybe Vayamos can challenge the Machines!