EinStein Ratings Einstein forum
8 replies. Last post: 2006-04-08
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8 replies. Last post: 2006-04-08
Reply to this topic Return to forumNew EinStein players on LittleGolem start
with a neutral rating of 1500. Currently
the best players are slightly/somewhat
above 1700, and the bottom is about 1300+.
This is well in accordance with EinStein
ratings on the other online server
http://www.inetplay.de, where
start rating is 2000 (instead of 1500 on LG)
and stable ratings are between 2200+ and
about 1900.
It is clear that in a game with a rather luck
factor ratings cannot climb (and fall) arbitrarily.
Ingo Althofer.
PS: Currently, the ratings on LG are more volatile
than on inetplay because of a larger influence factor
for the single results.
Summarising Ingo Althöfer,
if I get his spelling with o-umlaut right:
No surprises in the ratings and games of (some) chance have a limited rating scale.
I wish to replace his clarity (1) with mine (2):
1. IMHO at the low end of the scale there is plenty of room
to fall arbitrarily low, so your clarity is not mine.
I don't want to consider all-knowing worst play.
At the top end I agree:
Surely an all-knowing entity could not beat Opmp by more than 77.7% :-)
2. In a competition with free (i.e. player determined) pairing (e.g. InetPlay)
the scale of EWN ratings can be stretched significantly, so that the rating
difference does not reflect the win-chance by rating system design of two
arbitrary players in a structural way. On LG this is only a very minor
problem.
It can be prevented by an automatic pairing system, which doesn't show
the people registering for a game or tournament. For accuracy purposes
it could block people registering with a very big rating difference to
those already registered.
And then there are the rating tournaments to fix the damage.
By the way. Is anybody reading this?
Theo
Here is an exercise for a maths professor:
Based on his playing strength player A has chance 60% to beat player B
in a single point game.
What is player A's chance to beat B in a best-of-5 (3 point) game?
… and in the funny situation, that this chance is bigger than 60%,
wouldn't that have an effect on the rating scale :-)?
Actually, I'm quite sure he will be passing it on to a student.
I'm a fan of Deep Thought in more than one meaning.
Here's the math if I'm not mistake (and have typedcorrectlyinto the calculator).
0,65 + 5*0,64*0,4 + 10*0,63*0,42 = 0,68256
So yes, as one would intuitively expect the chances are better than 60%. Hence best of 5 ratings should give a rating distribution with slightly greater width.
Cheers
richyfourtytwo
You have calculated the chance that the stronger player makes 5, 4 or 3 points out of 5 games. The game stops after 3 won games!
I calculate the chance the stronger player makes 3 points in 3, 4 or 5 games
Here's my math if I'm not mistaken:
0,63 + 3*0,63*0,4 + 6*0,63*0,42 = 0,68256 (exact number)
Of course. The same result, but fitting reality more closely :-)
52% -> 53,7%
54% -> 57,5%
56% -> 61,1%
58% -> 64,7%
60% -> 68,3%
65% -> 76,5%
70% -> 83,7%
76% -> 90,7%
85% -> 97,3%
Proost,
Theo
PS: 3 permutations to win in 4 (6 to win in 5),
because the final win is a “given”.