Quantification of luck Einstein forum

3 replies. Last post: 2018-05-07

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Quantification of luck
  • Force majeure at 2018-05-06

    Have you ever estimated by any analytical (or by own intuition) impact of the luck in EWN? I imagine, that espiecially when having big game database and/or good AI program it could be feasible.

  • Florian Jamain at 2018-05-06

    100%

    :D

  • jytou ★ at 2018-05-07

    I have been doing a lot of tests to make my bot recently. From my own experience:

    - two players that are very different in strength (a very good one and a very bad one) can be distinguished reliably with less than 100 games, sometimes it takes as little as 20 games to be really sure which is the best player.

    - players that are still different in strength but not as much may need more games to separate them, as a “series of bad luck” can heavily shift the balance toward the weaker player. In my tests, I assume that 1000 games is a good discriminating number for those players,

    - players that are even more similar in strength (although not exactly equal) may need even more games (it can go up to 10k games) before reaching a stabilized and reliable result that will never change, no matter how many further games you play.

    So yes, luck plays a very big role, especially when the players are of rather similar strengths, which is not a big surprise for a dice game. ;)

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