I've greated this thread so that RoRoRo can post predictions of the outcome based on monte carlo simulations of remaining games based on players ratings.

How do ties work? In 4ir, a tie is possible, but in practice it seems very unlikely to happen (e.g. I have played 113 games of 4ir and tied twice). Does RoRoRo just assume a tie can't happen in the Monte Carlo simulation?