RoRoRo the Bot, please post the predictions for this tournament.

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

I've been requested to follow brkthr.ch.12.1.1 by Ray Garrison

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.

• Already completed matches:

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 0/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2220)-________0046.64%1.84%0.72%2Ray Garrison(2198)_-_______0039.32%1.81%1.18%3kyle douglas(2052)__-______008.71%1.37%10.88%4ypercube(1926)___-_____001.36%0.26%42.35%5Willem Gerritsen(1882)____-____000.57%0.13%57.49%6Micco(1863)_____-___000.42%0.10%64.70%7halladba(1867)______-__000.40%0.09%63.86%8richyfourtytwo(1834)_______-_000.22%0.06%73.85%9pim(1785)________-000.06%0.02%84.98%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Is it possible to post forecast to the group 2.1 as well? (That`s mine, of course). Thanks

Only top-tier championship leagues can be published to the fora, to reduce how noisy the bot here.

However, anyone can ask for any league of any type to be messaged to themself individually. If RoRoRo's profile doesn't contain enough information on how this is achieved - file a bug report with me.

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 2 - 0 ypercube
• ypercube 0 - 2 kyle douglas
• halladba 2 - 0 ypercube

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 3/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Ray Garrison(2203)-___2____2040.57%2.51%0.47%2kyle douglas(2068)_-__2____2011.67%2.28%4.89%3halladba(1885)__-_2____200.90%0.20%37.85%4Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2220)___-_____0042.90%2.54%0.67%5ypercube(1904)000_-____000.00%080.46%6Willem Gerritsen(1882)_____-___000.46%0.13%55.69%7Micco(1863)______-__000.34%0.08%62.40%8richyfourtytwo(1834)_______-_000.16%0.03%72.09%9pim(1775)________-000.07%0.02%85.47%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• ypercube 0 - 2 Mojmir Hanes with yellow black
• ypercube 0 - 2 Micco

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 5/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2224)-____2___2044.84%2.89%0.44%2Ray Garrison(2203)_-___2___2038.29%2.87%0.65%3kyle douglas(2077)__-__2___2011.60%2.59%4.51%4Micco(1856)___-_2___200.46%0.12%47.75%5halladba(1893)____-2___200.89%0.27%37.67%6ypercube(1890)00000-___000097.94%7Willem Gerritsen(1882)______-__000.48%0.14%55.12%8richyfourtytwo(1834)_______-_000.15%0.04%71.44%9pim(1775)________-000.04%0.01%84.48%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pim 2 - 0 ypercube

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 6/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2224)-_____2__2045.55%2.38%0.62%2Ray Garrison(2203)_-____2__2038.65%2.43%0.77%3kyle douglas(2063)__-___2__209.81%2.00%7.10%4Micco(1811)___-__2__200.18%0.04%67.88%5halladba(1944)____-_2__201.98%0.51%28.98%6pim(1854)_____-2__200.36%0.11%58.40%7ypercube(1894)000000-__0000100.00%8Willem Gerritsen(1882)_______-_000.43%0.11%61.10%9richyfourtytwo(1834)________-000.15%0.04%75.15%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Willem Gerritsen 2 - 0 ypercube

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 7/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2224)-______2_2044.59%2.66%0.65%2Ray Garrison(2203)_-_____2_2037.99%2.56%0.98%3kyle douglas(2070)__-____2_2010.27%2.14%7.71%4Willem Gerritsen(1882)___-___2_200.63%0.19%51.07%5Micco(1811)____-__2_200.15%0.05%72.94%6halladba(1966)_____-_2_202.56%0.67%27.97%7pim(1858)______-2_200.46%0.10%61.62%8ypercube(1881)0000000-_0000100.00%9richyfourtytwo(1834)________-000.17%0.03%77.06%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• ypercube 0 - 2 richyfourtytwo

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 8/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes with yellow black(2224)-_______22044.13%2.76%0.89%2Willem Gerritsen(1882)_-______2200.56%0.19%53.86%3Ray Garrison(2203)__-_____22037.07%2.72%1.31%4kyle douglas(2084)___-____22011.48%2.28%7.73%5richyfourtytwo(1852)____-___2200.34%0.10%64.95%6halladba(1966)_____-__2202.41%0.65%31.65%7Micco(1821)______-_2200.20%0.06%75.24%8pim(1867)_______-2200.42%0.13%64.36%9ypercube(1863)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 halladba

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 9/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2049)-____2__24411.22%2.45%4.37%2Mojmir Hanes(2224)_-______22044.91%2.72%0.65%3Willem Gerritsen(1882)__-_____2200.68%0.27%48.97%4Ray Garrison(2203)___-____22038.35%2.67%1.01%5richyfourtytwo(1816)____-___2200.20%0.04%69.92%6halladba(1943)0____-__2200.68%0.18%44.33%7Micco(1804)______-_2200.15%0.06%75.30%8pim(1878)_______-2200.60%0.19%55.45%9ypercube(1878)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Mojmir Hanes 2 - 0 pim

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 10/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Mojmir Hanes(2227)-______224447.13%3.09%0.34%2kyle douglas(2049)_-___2__24410.67%2.89%3.86%3Willem Gerritsen(1896)__-_____2200.77%0.24%41.89%4Ray Garrison(2203)___-____22036.88%3.10%0.86%5richyfourtytwo(1816)____-___2200.18%0.05%67.89%6halladba(1943)_0___-__2200.72%0.17%41.29%7Micco(1804)______-_2200.12%0.04%73.30%8pim(1832)0______-2200.06%0.04%70.59%9ypercube(1894)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Micco 2 - 0 kyle douglas <— major upset!

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 11/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1829)-_2_____2480.77%0.25%37.77%2Mojmir Hanes(2227)_-_____224451.45%1.12%0.47%3kyle douglas(2028)0_-___2_2443.92%0.58%15.51%4Willem Gerritsen(1896)___-____2200.88%0.26%48.23%5Ray Garrison(2203)____-___22040.46%1.08%1.31%6richyfourtytwo(1816)_____-__2200.21%0.08%73.20%7halladba(1923)__0___-_2200.66%0.13%53.39%8pim(1852)_0_____-2200.12%0.06%70.12%9ypercube(1894)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 pim

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 12/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2036)-0____222685.19%0.85%7.61%2Micco(1835)2-______24120.87%0.31%35.95%3Mojmir Hanes(2227)__-____224450.29%1.18%0.46%4Willem Gerritsen(1896)___-____2200.90%0.26%48.28%5Ray Garrison(2203)____-___22040.15%1.23%1.23%6richyfourtytwo(1816)_____-__2200.18%0.07%72.83%7halladba(1923)0_____-_2200.65%0.18%53.40%8pim(1844)0_0____-2200.01%0.01%80.24%9ypercube(1894)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pim 0 - 2 Ray Garrison

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 13/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2045)-0____222685.53%0.70%6.64%2Micco(1791)2-______24120.47%0.14%44.10%3Mojmir Hanes(2227)__-____224448.97%0.92%0.44%4Ray Garrison(2206)___-___224441.70%0.93%0.74%5Willem Gerritsen(1913)____-___2201.13%0.30%40.09%6richyfourtytwo(1808)_____-__2200.16%0.07%72.98%7halladba(1931)0_____-_2200.68%0.17%48.33%8pim(1818)0_00___-2200086.67%9ypercube(1902)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Mojmir Hanes 0 - 2 halladba <— astonishing! [°_°]

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 14/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2055)-02____226129.49%1.75%7.70%2Micco(1791)2-______24120.76%0.25%52.93%3halladba(1960)0_-2____2485.69%0.99%13.65%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224426.92%1.90%3.46%5Ray Garrison(2206)____-__224451.87%1.98%1.07%6Willem Gerritsen(1913)_____-__2201.73%0.45%50.06%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.23%0.09%80.09%8pim(1818)0__00__-2200091.04%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• halladba 0 - 2 Micco <— upset!

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 15/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1814)-22_____26202.48%0.57%19.40%2kyle douglas(2058)0-2____226128.03%1.86%12.16%3halladba(1937)00-2____2480.90%0.52%37.34%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224429.93%2.35%3.19%5Ray Garrison(2206)____-__224453.11%2.03%1.31%6Willem Gerritsen(1913)_____-__2201.83%0.40%53.80%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.26%0.08%81.87%8pim(1825)_0_00__-2200090.92%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Micco 2 - 0 Willem Gerritsen

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 16/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1834)-22__2__28245.83%1.06%1.85%2kyle douglas(2058)0-2____226126.70%1.44%10.56%3halladba(1937)00-2____2480.48%0.58%33.74%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224429.03%2.37%2.49%5Ray Garrison(2210)____-__224454.06%2.19%1.01%6Willem Gerritsen(1889)0____-__2200.22%0.13%79.04%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.26%0.10%80.98%8pim(1825)_0_00__-2200090.33%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Willem Gerritsen 0 - 2 halladba

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 17/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1834)-22__2__28285.95%1.15%2.16%2kyle douglas(2058)0-2____226167.09%1.78%8.98%3halladba(1950)00-2_2__26120.91%1.27%16.34%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224427.89%2.20%2.71%5Ray Garrison(2210)____-__224454.12%2.18%0.87%6Willem Gerritsen(1876)0_0__-__2200.08%0.02%93.28%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.30%0.11%83.28%8pim(1825)_0_00__-22000.00%92.37%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 Willem Gerritsen

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 18/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1834)-22__2__28325.79%1.30%1.92%2kyle douglas(2068)0-2__2_228209.31%2.26%4.37%3halladba(1953)00-2_2__26120.52%1.35%16.48%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224427.32%2.44%2.33%5Ray Garrison(2210)____-__224452.77%2.45%0.80%6Willem Gerritsen(1868)000__-__2200098.06%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.25%0.09%83.55%8pim(1825)_0_00__-2200092.50%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 Ray Garrison <— upset!

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 19/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2067)-02_22_22102828.85%4.35%0.05%2Micco(1834)2-2__2__28367.98%1.93%2.24%3halladba(1953)00-2_2__26120.42%1.74%18.19%4Mojmir Hanes(2200)__0-___224433.02%3.80%2.28%5Ray Garrison(2188)0___-__224423.05%3.48%2.66%6Willem Gerritsen(1868)000__-__2200098.28%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.32%0.17%84.57%8pim(1844)0__00__-2200091.75%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

The student beats the teacher :)

It was a tough game as always =]

Kyle beated Ray in the previous championship as well if I recall it correctly

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Mojmir Hanes 0 - 2 kyle douglas <— upset!

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 20/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2088)-02222_22123685.61%2.32%02Micco(1834)2-2__2__28406.45%1.39%1.16%3halladba(1953)00-2_2__261200.02%20.72%4Mojmir Hanes(2179)0_0-___22440.33%0.72%6.78%5Ray Garrison(2188)0___-__22444.83%1.20%2.51%6Willem Gerritsen(1868)000__-__2200097.49%7richyfourtytwo(1808)______-_2200.39%0.14%82.19%8pim(1849)0__00__-2200089.15%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• richyfourtytwo 0 - 2 kyle douglas

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 21/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2104)-02222222144092.13%1.12%02Micco(1853)2-2__2__28446.75%1.12%0.47%3halladba(1944)00-2_2__26120018.47%4Mojmir Hanes(2179)0_0-___2244005.95%5Ray Garrison(2193)0___-__224401.12%1.91%6Willem Gerritsen(1854)000__-__2200097.60%7richyfourtytwo(1803)0_____-_2200087.46%8pim(1849)0__00__-2200088.15%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• richyfourtytwo 0 - 2 halladba

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 22/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2104)-02222222144492.14%1.20%02Micco(1853)2-2__2__28486.66%1.20%0.44%3halladba(1953)00-2_22_2816008.24%4Mojmir Hanes(2179)0_0-___2244005.72%5Ray Garrison(2193)0___-__224401.20%1.63%6Willem Gerritsen(1854)000__-__2200098.29%7richyfourtytwo(1794)0_0___-_2200095.89%8pim(1849)0__00__-2200089.79%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Willem Gerritsen 2 - 0 pim

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 23/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2104)-02222222144891.73%1.29%02Micco(1853)2-2_2___28526.98%1.29%0.26%3halladba(1953)00-22_2_2820004.33%4Mojmir Hanes(2179)0_0-___2244005.85%5Willem Gerritsen(1869)000_-__22440096.57%6Ray Garrison(2193)0____-_224401.29%1.77%7richyfourtytwo(1794)0_0___-_2200095.84%8pim(1834)0__000_-2200095.37%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 0 - 2 Micco <— astonishing! [°_°]

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 24/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2104)-02222222144855.93%002Micco(1881)2-2_22__2106044.07%003halladba(1953)00-22_2_2820004.28%4Mojmir Hanes(2179)0_0-___2244005.03%5Willem Gerritsen(1869)000_-__22440093.79%6Ray Garrison(2165)00___-_2244009.92%7richyfourtytwo(1794)0_0___-_2200093.31%8pim(1814)0__000_-2200093.67%9ypercube(1913)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

You silly bot - ratings difference of ~300 is not astonishing, I recently beat someone who was rated 450 more than me!

Anyway - Hyvä Micco for really opening up this championship - may the best man win!

I must remember to use ä rather than ä

Even a 450 point difference gives a one out of fourteen chance for the underdog. And that's with the false assumption that all current effective strengths are accurately represented by current ratings.

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Micco 2 - 0 Mojmir Hanes <— astonishing! [°_°]

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 25/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2105)-02222222144812.09%002Micco(1908)2-2222__2126887.91%003halladba(1953)00-22_2_2820001.95%4Mojmir Hanes(2152)000-___22440021.72%5Willem Gerritsen(1869)000_-__22440086.66%6Ray Garrison(2165)00___-_2244008.19%7richyfourtytwo(1794)0_0___-_2200088.21%8pim(1803)0__000_-2200093.26%9ypercube(1931)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• halladba 2 - 0 Ray Garrison <— major upset!

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 26/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2105)-02222222145212.75%002Micco(1908)2-2222__2127287.25%003halladba(1979)00-2222_210280004Mojmir Hanes(2152)000-___22440015.93%5Willem Gerritsen(1869)000_-__22440079.22%6Ray Garrison(2141)000__-_22440027.28%7richyfourtytwo(1794)0_0___-_2200085.41%8pim(1816)0__000_-2200092.15%9ypercube(1931)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pim 0 - 2 Micco

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 27/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Micco(1919)-22222_221476100.00%002kyle douglas(2109)0-222222214520003halladba(1965)00-2222_210280004Mojmir Hanes(2152)000-___22440013.55%5Willem Gerritsen(1869)000_-__22440077.80%6Ray Garrison(2141)000__-_22440024.88%7richyfourtytwo(1794)_00___-_2200085.00%8pim(1792)00_000_-2200098.78%9ypercube(1931)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

congrats Micco!

well done!

congrats to micco. I thought I had this one in the bag, but well done to micco to claim victory!

Congrats to Micco!

Also small congrats to richy42 who seems to be beating the champion!

*cough*

That seemed like a comment about the existence or nonexistence of winning lines in a game currently in progress. Naughty boy!

But congrats to Micco indeed.

I'm not sure that you can get to an 1800 rating in this game without seeing that *cough* is a winning move.

Anyway, congrats to Micco.

Congrats Micco :-)

brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Tournament:brkthr.ch.12.1.1

Start date:2010-07-15 09:09

Finish date:

N Name Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Points Son

1 Micco info 1878(1877) 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 14 92

2 kyle douglas info 2034(2120) 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 76

3 halladba info 1867(1967) 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 12 52

4 Mojmir Hanes info 2220(2159) 0 0 0 2 _ 2 2 2 8 24

5 richyfourtytwo info 1834(1799) 2 0 0 0 _ 2 _ 2 6 36

6 Ray Garrison info 2198(2155) 0 0 0 _ _ 2 2 2 6 12

7 Willem Gerritsen info 1882(1818) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 4

8 pim info 1746(1781) 0 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 2 0

9 ypercube info 1926(1939) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

For reference, RoRoRo by design will not post updates after the winner is decided. This policy was started in order to cut down noise while there was no P(down) column in the tables. My inclination to change that is very low.

Does that apply to updates by message rather than the forum?

I think it's global - no updates after the winner is decided.