EinStein Ratings Einstein forum

8 replies. Last post: 2006-04-08

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EinStein Ratings
  • Ingo Althofer at 2006-04-02

    New EinStein players on LittleGolem start
    with a neutral rating of 1500. Currently
    the best players are slightly/somewhat
    above 1700, and the bottom is about 1300+.
    This is well in accordance with EinStein
    ratings on the other online server
    http://www.inetplay.de, where
    start rating is 2000 (instead of 1500 on LG)
    and stable ratings are between 2200+ and
    about 1900.

    It is clear that in a game with a rather luck
    factor ratings cannot climb (and fall) arbitrarily.

    Ingo Althofer.

    PS: Currently, the ratings on LG are more volatile
    than on inetplay because of a larger influence factor
    for the single results.

  • Theo van der Storm at 2006-04-05

    Summarising Ingo Althöfer,
    if I get his spelling with o-umlaut right:
    No surprises in the ratings and games of (some) chance have a limited rating scale.

    I wish to replace his clarity (1) with mine (2):
    1. IMHO at the low end of the scale there is plenty of room
    to fall arbitrarily low, so your clarity is not mine.
    I don’t want to consider all-knowing worst play.
    At the top end I agree:
    Surely an all-knowing entity could not beat Opmp by more than 77.7% :-)
    2. In a competition with free (i.e. player determined) pairing (e.g. InetPlay)
    the scale of EWN ratings can be stretched significantly, so that the rating
    difference does not reflect the win-chance by rating system design of two
    arbitrary players in a structural way. On LG this is only a very minor
    problem.

    It can be prevented by an automatic pairing system, which doesn’t show
    the people registering for a game or tournament. For accuracy purposes
    it could block people registering with a very big rating difference to
    those already registered.
    And then there are the rating tournaments to fix the damage.

    By the way. Is anybody reading this?

    Theo

  • Gregorlo at 2006-04-05

    "By the way. Is anybody reading this?"

    I do :)

  • Theo van der Storm at 2006-04-05

    Here is an exercise for a maths professor:

    Based on his playing strength player A has chance 60% to beat player B
    in a single point game.

    What is player A’s chance to beat B in a best-of-5 (3 point) game?

    ... and in the funny situation, that this chance is bigger than 60%,
    wouldn’t that have an effect on the rating scale :-)?

    Actually, I’m quite sure he will be passing it on to a student.
    I’m a fan of Deep Thought in more than one meaning.

  • richyfourtytwo ★ at 2006-04-05

    Here’s the math if I’m not mistake (and have typedcorrectlyinto the calculator).

    0,6^5 + 5*0,6^4*0,4 + 10*0,6^3*0,4^2 = 0,68256

    So yes, as one would intuitively expect the chances are better than 60%. Hence best of 5 ratings should give a rating distribution with slightly greater width.

    Cheers

    richyfourtytwo

  • Theo van der Storm at 2006-04-05

    You have calculated the chance that the stronger player makes 5, 4 or 3 points out of 5 games. The game stops after 3 won games!

    I calculate the chance the stronger player makes 3 points in 3, 4 or 5 games
    Here’s my math if I’m not mistaken:

    0,6^3 + 3*0,6^3*0,4 + 6*0,6^3*0,4^2 = 0,68256 (exact number)

    Of course. The same result, but fitting reality more closely :-)

    52% -> 53,7%
    54% -> 57,5%
    56% -> 61,1%
    58% -> 64,7%
    60% -> 68,3%
    65% -> 76,5%
    70% -> 83,7%
    76% -> 90,7%
    85% -> 97,3%

    Proost,
    Theo

    PS: 3 permutations to win in 4 (6 to win in 5),
    because the final win is a “given”.

  • Theo van der Storm at 2006-04-08

    Does anyone have the rating formula used?

  • Gregorlo at 2006-04-08

    the formula was discussed in the forum, try google :)

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