*Tournament: “dvonn.ch.20.1.1”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
I've been requested to follow dvonn.ch.20.1.1 by FatPhil

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 37/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. \|_. N \|_. Player \|_. Rating \|_. 1 \|_. 2 \|_. 3 \|_. 4 \|_. 5 \|_. 6 \|_. 7 \|_. 8 \|_. 9 \|_. 10 \|_. Score \|_. Son \|_. p(win) \|_. p(draw) \|_. p(down) \|
\| 1 \| MRUNBEATABLE \| (2131) \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 \| 12 \| 72 \| 12.03% \| 10.52% \| 0 \|
\| 2 \| Pere Toledano \| (1977)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 \| 10 \| 72 \| 1.86% \| 7.85% \| 1.88% \|
\| 3 \| mongoose \| (2072)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772 \| -\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 \| 10 \| 68 \| 33.40% \| 5.36% \| 6.95% \|
\| 4 \| Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) \| (2095)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 \| 10 \| 64 \| 36.99% \| 3.61% \| 9.46% \|
\| 5 \| Alban \| (2020)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 \| 10 \| 60 \| 0 \| 0 \| 32.47% \|
\| 6 \| Kisoul \| (2005)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 \| 8 \| 52 \| 0 \| 0 \| 74.02% \|
\| 7 \| Clint Meyer \| (1890)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 \| 6 \| 44 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 8 \| Paavo Pirinen \| (2045)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 \| -\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 \| 6 \| 28 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 9 \| Talizess \| (2005)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| 2 \| 0 \| 4.47% \| 0.35% \| 75.23% \|
\| 10 \| MRGREEDY \| (1849)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| - \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: “dvonn.ch.20.1.1”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
Newly completed matches:
\* Talizess 2 - 0 Alban

Games completed: 38/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. \|_. N \|_. Player \|_. Rating \|_. 1 \|_. 2 \|_. 3 \|_. 4 \|_. 5 \|_. 6 \|_. 7 \|_. 8 \|_. 9 \|_. 10 \|_. Score \|_. Son \|_. p(win) \|_. p(draw) \|_. p(down) \|
\| 1 \| MRUNBEATABLE \| (2124) \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 \| 12 \| 76 \| 9.25% \| 11.78% \| 0 \|
\| 2 \| Pere Toledano \| (1977)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 \| 10 \| 72 \| 1.30% \| 8.53% \| 2.06% \|
\| 3 \| mongoose \| (2072)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772 \| -\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 \| 10 \| 68 \| 28.97% \| 6.56% \| 4.44% \|
\| 4 \| Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) \| (2131)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 \| 10 \| 64 \| 39.53% \| 3.94% \| 8.73% \|
\| 5 \| Alban \| (1979)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| *“0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 \| 10 \| 60 \| 0 \| 0 \| 71.13% \|
\| 6 \| Kisoul \| (2005)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 \| 8 \| 52 \| 0 \| 0 \| 57.11% \|
\| 7 \| Clint Meyer \| (1890)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 \| 6 \| 44 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 8 \| Paavo Pirinen \| (2045)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 \| -\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 \| 6 \| 28 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 9 \| Talizess \| (2021)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| *“2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775*\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| 4 \| 20 \| 8.45% \| 0.65% \| 56.53% \|
\| 10 \| MRGREEDY \| (1849)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| - \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: “dvonn.ch.20.1.1”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
Newly completed matches:
\ Kisoul 2 - 0 Talizess
\ mongoose 0 - 2 Tobias (TORBEN .BSW)

Games completed: 40/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. \|_. N \|_. Player \|_. Rating \|_. 1 \|_. 2 \|_. 3 \|_. 4 \|_. 5 \|_. 6 \|_. 7 \|_. 8 \|_. 9 \|_. 10 \|_. Score \|_. Son \|_. p(win) \|_. p(draw) \|_. p(down) \|
\| 1 \| Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) \| (2144) \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| *“2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761*\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 \| 12 \| 84 \| 71.60% \| 6.05% \| 0 \|
\| 2 \| MRUNBEATABLE \| (2105)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 \| 12 \| 84 \| 12.90% \| 13.47% \| 0 \|
\| 3 \| Pere Toledano \| (1977)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 \| 10 \| 76 \| 0 \| 11.57% \| 2.84% \|
\| 4 \| mongoose \| (2059)\| *“0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 \| 10 \| 68 \| 0 \| 0 \| 13.64% \|
\| 5 \| Kisoul \| (2021)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| *“2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 \| 10 \| 64 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 6 \| Alban \| (1979)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 \| 10 \| 64 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 7 \| Clint Meyer \| (1890)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 \| 6 \| 44 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 8 \| Paavo Pirinen \| (2045)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 \| -\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 \| 6 \| 32 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 9 \| Talizess \| (2005)\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| *“0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| 4 \| 20 \| 2.03% \| 0 \| 83.52% \|
\| 10 \| MRGREEDY \| (1849)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| - \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: “dvonn.ch.20.1.1”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
Newly completed matches:
\* Talizess 2 - 0 Paavo Pirinen

Games completed: 41/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. \|_. N \|_. Player \|_. Rating \|_. 1 \|_. 2 \|_. 3 \|_. 4 \|_. 5 \|_. 6 \|_. 7 \|_. 8 \|_. 9 \|_. 10 \|_. Score \|_. Son \|_. p(win) \|_. p(draw) \|_. p(down) \|
\| 1 \| MRUNBEATABLE \| (2091) \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 \| 12 \| 88 \| 12.32% \| 11.26% \| 0 \|
\| 2 \| Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) \| (2158)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 \| 12 \| 84 \| 71.06% \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 3 \| Pere Toledano \| (1977)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 \| 10 \| 76 \| 0 \| 11.26% \| 6.65% \|
\| 4 \| Kisoul \| (2021)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 \| 10 \| 68 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 5 \| mongoose \| (2059)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 \| 10 \| 68 \| 0 \| 0 \| 23.91% \|
\| 6 \| Alban \| (1916)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 \| 10 \| 64 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 7 \| Clint Meyer \| (1890)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 \| 6 \| 44 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 8 \| Paavo Pirinen \| (2028)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 \| -\| *“0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 \| 6 \| 32 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|
\| 9 \| Talizess \| (2022)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| *“2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755* \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| 6 \| 32 \| 5.36% \| 0 \| 69.43% \|
\| 10 \| MRGREEDY \| (1849)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| - \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100.00% \|

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: “dvonn.ch.20.1.1”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
Newly completed matches:
\* Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) 2 - 0 Talizess

Games completed: 42/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. \|_. N \|_. Player \|_. Rating \|_. 1 \|_. 2 \|_. 3 \|_. 4 \|_. 5 \|_. 6 \|_. 7 \|_. 8 \|_. 9 \|_. 10 \|_. Score \|_. Son \|_. p(win) \|_. p(draw) \|_. p(down) \|
\| 1 \| Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) \| (2147) \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| *“2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762*\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 \| 14 \| 96 \| 100% \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 2 \| MRUNBEATABLE \| (2091)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 \| 12 \| 92 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 3 \| Pere Toledano \| (1977)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 \| 10 \| 76 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 4 \| Kisoul \| (2021)\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 \| 10 \| 72 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \|
\| 5 \| mongoose \| (2059)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 \| 10 \| 68 \| 0 \| 0 \| 15.90% \|
\| 6 \| Alban \| (1916)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 \| 10 \| 64 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100% \|
\| 7 \| Clint Meyer \| (1885)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 \| 6 \| 44 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100% \|
\| 8 \| Paavo Pirinen \| (2028)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 \| -\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 \| 6 \| 32 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100% \|
\| 9 \| Talizess \| (2012)\| *“0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762*\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775\| “_“:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755 \| -\| “2”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| 6 \| 32 \| 0 \| 0 \| 84.10% \|
\| 10 \| MRGREEDY \| (1849)\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756\| “0”:http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 \| - \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 0 \| 100% \|

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted