Automatic championship prediction updates Reversi forum

7 replies. Last post: 2008-10-21

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Automatic championship prediction updates
  • FatPhil at 2008-10-17

    Would you like RoRoRo to automatically post an updated prediction for who is likely to win the championship to the forums? He currently does so for Twixt and Hex. He's already following this tournament (and others) and making his prediction on a web page, and it's absolutely trivial to get him to post an update automatically.

  • klaashaas at 2008-10-17

    Yes, very interesting.

    Can you explain RoRoRo's algoritm? Which criteria RoRoRo uses and how many games he plays out (MC). Does he use any reversi AI to help the MC?

  • wccanard at 2008-10-17

    RoRoRo isn't analysing the games—he's guessing the results a gazillion times. In particular there's no commenting, either implicit or explicit, on games still in progress.

  • klaashaas at 2008-10-17

    So, he only plays out gazillion (how many exactly?) random branches of the games (Monte Carlo), without any AI? So purely brute force?

    Are you going to improve this in a later stadium, Phil?

    He doesn't take the current rating into account or the results of other games (to reflect ones form?) or any other criteria?

  • FatPhil at 2008-10-17

    The _only_ input to the preditions are the players' current ratings. He absolutely doesn't look into the state of any game. One player may be just about to play a winning move, but if he's not done it yet, and he's got a lower rating, he'll be predicted to lose it (with a probability matching the ELO ratings model).

    Currently he only plays every game 10000 times. If there are 32 games left to play, there'll be 32000 biased coin-flips.

  • wccanard at 2008-10-21

    10000*32 != 32000 :-/ Which is the typo? (Not that it matters much).

  • FatPhil at 2008-10-21

    Good catch. I've varied the parameter a few times, I've forgotten myself what it's currently on. Aparently it's still on 10000, so 320000 biased coin flips if there are 32 games remaining.

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