Breakthrough Championship #14.

Rororo the Bot, can you post your predictions to this tournament?

Here we are in one more tournament. Good luck to all!!!

Boa sorte, mestre, capricha lá. Go Brazil!

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

I've been requested to follow brkthr.ch.14.1.1 by Ray Garrison

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.

• Already completed matches:
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 1/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2089)-_____2__2010.98%1.61%13.75%2Mojmir Hanes(2184)_-_______0027.46%2.41%5.45%3ypercube(1925)__-______000.64%0.17%69.30%4Ray Garrison(2215)___-_____0036.45%2.55%3.82%5Diamante(1891)____-____000.40%0.07%79.16%6kyle douglas(2111)_____-___0012.34%1.68%15.88%7isketzo67(1880)0_____-__000.10%0.04%87.78%8halladba(2073)_______-_007.58%1.21%25.10%9pim(1593)________-000099.75%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

rororo, why does pim have a 0% chance of winning? The tournament just started?

RoRoRo uses a probabilistic model, assessing the probability of each match from ratings and then doing Monte Carlo simulations with those probabilities as a basis. Pim's rating so far below the other players must have yielded no Monte Carlo playouts with him/her winning the tournament. I think that's what you'd expect, given a player 500 points below most of the contenders.

But in reality, extreme rating differences are more than trivially likely to be due to something other than playing strength. I wouldn't think it likely that pim will win, but common sense says the chance is probably greater than 1 in 10,000.

Yes, especially since pim's low (at the moment) rating is probably due to timeouts.

Pim is a very strong player. He could easily be over 2000 but he has a bad habit of mismanaging his time. If he makes his moves, he has a very good chance of winning the tournament.

Guys, this tournament is not stronger than the last one, is it?

Looking at the question from an objective point of view, more than one criteria point to the present tournament being stronger. I will compare both editions according to the following criteria: rating, championships, monthly cups and number of players. In my analisys I'll include all the existing results, including the 13th championship and all MCs 'till August 2010.

First of all, it must be pointed out that the 13th edition had 10 players while the current has 9.

From the Championship point of view, both tournaments include four previous winners. Mojmir Hanes (6 titles, including the 13th ch), Ray Garrison (3 titles) and kyle douglas (1 title) were in both editions. The 13th had Micco (1 title) while 14th has ypercube (also 1 title), so no change here.

As for MCs, if I count it correctly, 13th players totalled 49 wins (Ray 36, Mojmir and kyle 4 each, Mojo 2, hallabda 1, e2eL 1 and Micco 1). For 14th, I got 54 wins (e2eL and Micco being replaced by ypercube 4 titles and pim with 3). So here there's a clear indication of the current ch being stronger.

As for rating (looking as they were at the begin of each event), both editions included 5 players rated over 2000 but they are all with higher ratings now than before. Also, present edition has a avarage rating of 1994 agains 1988 of the previous one, even with pim being heavily underated at 1593.

From a subjective point of view, both tournaments (IMHO) seem to have a similar core of favorites (Ray, mojmir, kyle, hallabda and mojo with the group being completed by Micco in the previous edition and ypercube now) and a rest of "struggling to survive players".

I personally think higher of ypercube than Micco (whose game, nevertheless the very impressive result in 12th ch, never impressed me). As for the struglers group they seem pretty equivalent to me.

PS.: my point of view must be seen with extreme caution, since both times I played 1st group (ch 6 and 8) I did not survive.

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• MojoRising 2 - 0 Mojmir Hanes
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 2/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2116)-2____2__4027.50%2.69%3.03%2Mojmir Hanes(2165)0-_______008.02%1.76%13.91%3ypercube(1925)__-______000.67%0.19%70.90%4Ray Garrison(2215)___-_____0036.81%2.64%3.96%5Diamante(1891)____-____000.34%0.10%80.26%6kyle douglas(2124)_____-___0014.69%1.80%14.25%7isketzo67(1880)0_____-__000.06%0.02%88.36%8halladba(2074)_______-_007.47%1.33%25.53%9pim(1593)________-000099.79%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Mojmir Hanes 0 - 2 isketzo67 <--- major upset!
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 3/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2116)-22______4427.93%2.28%3.17%2isketzo67(1906)0-2______200.49%0.22%60.76%3Mojmir Hanes(2139)00-______002.20%0.70%37.23%4ypercube(1925)___-_____000.82%0.18%71.19%5Ray Garrison(2215)____-____0039.96%2.41%4.40%6Diamante(1891)_____-___000.37%0.09%80.42%7kyle douglas(2124)______-__0015.84%1.82%15.60%8halladba(2074)_______-_008.51%1.18%27.52%9pim(1593)________-000099.72%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• isketzo67 0 - 2 kyle douglas
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 4/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2117)-_22_____4426.55%2.27%3.40%2kyle douglas(2131)_-2______2419.36%2.00%8.45%3isketzo67(1899)00-2_____200.08%0.05%71.14%4Mojmir Hanes(2139)0_0-_____002.22%0.64%35.49%5ypercube(1925)____-____000.77%0.21%71.02%6Ray Garrison(2215)_____-___0038.69%2.36%4.40%7Diamante(1891)______-__000.37%0.10%80.05%8halladba(2074)_______-_008.08%1.29%26.31%9pim(1593)________-000099.74%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 MojoRising
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 5/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2146)-22______41235.44%2.48%1.93%2MojoRising(2105)0-22_____449.54%1.83%6.52%3isketzo67(1899)00-2_____200.11%0.06%71.93%4Mojmir Hanes(2139)_00-_____002.86%0.62%35.77%5ypercube(1925)____-____000.70%0.19%72.08%6Ray Garrison(2215)_____-___0038.90%2.48%4.40%7Diamante(1891)______-__000.42%0.10%80.27%8halladba(2074)_______-_008.13%1.23%27.34%9pim(1593)________-000099.77%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• isketzo67 0 - 2 Ray Garrison
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 6/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2146)-2_2_____41233.49%2.34%2.03%2MojoRising(2111)0-_22____449.61%1.66%6.09%3Ray Garrison(2219)__-2_____2441.41%2.35%2.49%4isketzo67(1895)000-2____2000.00%79.19%5Mojmir Hanes(2139)_0_0-____002.86%0.51%35.26%6ypercube(1937)_____-___000.85%0.19%68.65%7Diamante(1891)______-__000.39%0.09%80.44%8halladba(2077)_______-_007.83%1.20%26.10%9pim(1593)________-000099.76%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• halladba 2 - 0 isketzo67
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 7/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2146)-2__2____41232.21%2.60%1.92%2MojoRising(2121)0-__22___449.91%1.73%5.56%3Ray Garrison(2219)__-_2____2439.80%2.60%2.56%4halladba(2085)___-2____2410.29%1.58%15.53%5isketzo67(1887)0000-2___200090.69%6Mojmir Hanes(2139)_0__0-___002.82%0.38%33.12%7ypercube(1937)______-__000.75%0.25%69.65%8Diamante(1891)_______-_000.32%0.08%81.23%9pim(1593)________-000099.74%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pim 0 - 2 halladba
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 8/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2146)-_2_2____41231.89%2.68%1.97%2halladba(2086)_-__2___24410.50%1.62%14.19%3MojoRising(2121)0_-_22___4410.01%1.83%5.67%4Ray Garrison(2219)___-2____2439.66%2.54%2.68%5isketzo67(1887)0000-2___200091.07%6Mojmir Hanes(2139)__0_0-___002.85%0.46%33.61%7ypercube(1937)______-__000.78%0.24%69.71%8Diamante(1891)_______-_000.28%0.09%81.22%9pim(1592)_0______-000099.88%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 pim
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 9/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2147)-_2_2___261232.77%2.65%1.82%2halladba(2086)_-__2___24410.54%1.69%14.61%3MojoRising(2121)0_-_22___449.62%1.78%5.81%4Ray Garrison(2219)___-2____2439.38%2.49%2.82%5isketzo67(1887)0000-2___200091.04%6Mojmir Hanes(2139)__0_0-___002.82%0.40%33.00%7ypercube(1937)______-__000.66%0.22%69.63%8Diamante(1891)_______-_000.27%0.09%81.36%9pim(1591)00______-000099.91%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• isketzo67 0 - 2 Diamante
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 10/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2147)-_2__2__261232.76%2.81%2.19%2halladba(2086)_-___2__24410.13%1.60%16.13%3MojoRising(2121)0_-__22__449.27%1.71%6.74%4Ray Garrison(2219)___-_2___2438.93%2.73%3.15%5Diamante(1906)____-2___240.65%0.19%69.09%6isketzo67(1872)00000-2__200099.01%7Mojmir Hanes(2139)__0__0-__003.47%0.28%33.20%8ypercube(1937)_______-_000.71%0.24%70.56%9pim(1591)00______-000099.92%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pim 0 - 2 isketzo67
  
• MojoRising 2 - 0 pim
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 12/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2147)-2_2____262032.71%2.75%2.26%2MojoRising(2122)0-_2__2_2689.73%1.69%6.43%3halladba(2086)__-2____2489.81%1.75%16.41%4isketzo67(1877)000-002_2400098.38%5Ray Garrison(2219)___2-____2839.09%2.68%3.13%6Diamante(1906)___2_-___280.68%0.22%68.85%7Mojmir Hanes(2139)_0_0__-__003.15%0.26%33.71%8ypercube(1937)_______-_000.76%0.21%70.84%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• MojoRising 2 - 0 halladba
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 13/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2136)-022__2_281617.91%2.59%1.18%2kyle douglas(2147)2-_2____262432.86%2.91%1.95%3halladba(2078)0_-2____2482.99%1.06%26.50%4isketzo67(1877)000-002_2400097.85%5Ray Garrison(2219)___2-____2837.97%2.70%3.09%6Diamante(1906)___2_-___280.59%0.19%68.29%7Mojmir Hanes(2139)0__0__-__002.54%0.32%33.64%8ypercube(1948)_______-_000.90%0.25%67.52%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.98%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• halladba 2 - 0 kyle douglas
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 14/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2136)-022__2_282025.61%2.96%1.17%2kyle douglas(2128)2-02____262414.89%2.70%5.53%3halladba(2097)02-2____26208.97%2.57%9.46%4isketzo67(1877)000-002_2400099.06%5Ray Garrison(2219)___2-____2840.45%2.63%3.72%6Diamante(1906)___2_-___280.61%0.23%72.83%7Mojmir Hanes(2139)0__0__-__003.12%0.45%36.88%8ypercube(1948)_______-_001.07%0.27%71.36%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 2 - 0 Diamante
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 15/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2134)-202_2__282818.13%3.03%2.02%2MojoRising(2136)0-22__2_282023.81%2.84%1.06%3halladba(2097)20-2____26248.95%2.61%8.06%4isketzo67(1877)000-002_2400098.70%5Ray Garrison(2219)___2-____2839.45%2.42%3.26%6Diamante(1900)0__2_-___280.21%0.06%80.58%7Mojmir Hanes(2139)_0_0__-__003.26%0.37%35.96%8ypercube(1948)_______-_001.00%0.29%70.37%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• kyle douglas 0 - 2 Mojmir Hanes
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 16/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1kyle douglas(2119)-2020_2_28285.89%2.92%4.48%2MojoRising(2136)0-222___282430.06%2.87%1.17%3halladba(2097)20-2____26248.81%2.41%11.04%4isketzo67(1877)000-200_2440099.87%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)20_0-____2167.06%0.82%16.81%6Ray Garrison(2219)___2_-___2841.51%2.40%4.05%7Diamante(1900)0__2__-__280.28%0.07%86.31%8ypercube(1948)_______-_001.09%0.22%76.29%9pim(1585)0000____-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 0 - 2 MojoRising
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 17/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2155)-02222__2102876.12%4.19%02kyle douglas(2119)2-020_2_28323.74%2.02%3.12%3halladba(2097)02-2____26244.15%0.97%10.15%4isketzo67(1877)000-200_2440099.71%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)02_0-____2163.09%1.41%16.58%6Ray Garrison(2200)0__2_-___286.83%0.53%10.06%7Diamante(1900)_0_2__-__280.35%0.07%85.55%8ypercube(1948)_______-_001.21%0.25%74.84%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• ypercube 2 - 0 isketzo67
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 18/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2155)-0222_2_2102874.08%4.16%0.00%2kyle douglas(2124)2-020__228324.23%1.97%4.38%3halladba(2097)02-2____26244.10%1.10%11.76%4isketzo67(1865)000-200024400100.00%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)02_0-____2164.36%1.11%18.03%6ypercube(1960)___2_-___281.88%0.49%65.68%7Ray Garrison(2200)0__2__-__286.45%0.72%12.89%8Diamante(1900)_0_2___-_280.35%0.10%87.26%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• MojoRising 2 - 0 Diamante
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 19/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2160)-0222_222123283.50%2.95%02kyle douglas(2124)2-020__228362.65%1.31%3.81%3halladba(2097)02-2____26242.17%0.89%10.97%4isketzo67(1865)000-200024400100.00%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)02_0-____2162.93%0.59%17.09%6ypercube(1960)___2_-___281.75%0.52%63.87%7Ray Garrison(2200)0__2__-__283.80%0.61%11.85%8Diamante(1895)00_2___-_2800.00%92.42%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Ray Garrison 0 - 2 kyle douglas
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 20/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2160)-0222_222123281.10%3.58%02kyle douglas(2143)2-020_22210406.85%3.42%03halladba(2097)02-2____26282.40%1.49%8.28%4isketzo67(1865)000-200024400100.00%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)02_0-____2203.63%0.08%14.98%6ypercube(1960)___2_-___281.88%0.35%60.52%7Ray Garrison(2181)00_2__-__2800.16%25.37%8Diamante(1895)00_2___-_280090.86%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Congratulations to MojoRising !

Tournament: brkthr.ch.14.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• ypercube 0 - 2 MojoRising
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 21/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1MojoRising(2167)-022222221436100.00%002kyle douglas(2143)2-020_22210440003halladba(2097)02-2____2628006.52%4isketzo67(1865)000-200024400100.00%5Mojmir Hanes(2154)02_0-____2200012.70%6ypercube(1953)0__2_-___280069.72%7Ray Garrison(2181)00_2__-__280021.36%8Diamante(1895)00_2___-_280089.72%9pim(1585)0000____-000099.99%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Parabéns, mestre! 8-)

Congratulations to MojoRising, you fully deserved it :-)

Thank you very much, guys!!!! It's an honor to take part in a tournament with such high quality players!

Rororo stopped posting his predictions?

Congratulaions to Mojo. Thanks for the great tournament guys.

RoRoRo stops to calculate predictions once a player reaches 100% winning chances, even though that doesn't always means that this player has won the tournnament in question (eg, here).