I think that the noise floor is so high that your sample isn't big enough. I think did write a script to play different parametrisations of RoRoRo's engine against itself. I could adapt that so that some participants were never matched with vastly differently rated opponents, and play millions of games, I guess, and see whether there is a difference to be measured or not.
For your next expleriment, my prediction is that there'll be more noise in opmp, and less noise in Jonny.
Within the last year I played nearly against everyone in a lot of 3 point matches and my rating was very low with approx. 1700 (averaged). But my rating is increasing since I'm playing more 5 or even 7 point matches. And I guess that the player strength (rating) is approx. the same. So I see an advantage in 5-7 point matches compared to the 3 point matches.
What is noticable is the winning rate of OPMP (62.0% )compared to Jonny (55.3%). So it looks that Jonny is playing against stronger players and it seems that this results in a higher rating (maybe ~ 1775 averaged about those 2 years compared to ~ 1725 after stabilization) even if more games was lost.
One ID plays only normal EWN, the other account plays only backwards capture?
A less luck-dominated game should permit ratings to extend over a wider range, which, as your're a good plaayer, implies that you should end up with a higher rating in the more skillful game.