Ocean11 coïncidence

Public forum discussion.

#1 · Carroll

4 Sep 2026

That

#2 · Sighris

5 Sep 2026

If we play games of chance long enough, we will see many types of coincidence. But thanks for sharing that... BTW, I have not yet played Ocean 11 and I do not know the rules and gameplay - but I see two J-of-spades - so more than one deck of cards is used? That is normal for casinos, so I'm not surprised. But I want to ask to confirm.

#3 · William Fraser

6 Sep 2026

Each player has their own deck. That way, you will get all of the same cards, just in a different order (or at least, usually in a different order!).

#4 · Carroll

6 Sep 2026

?
yes I wondered if some math wizard here would tell the exact probability which I expect is 1/(a few ten thousands).
But it is hard to define what a coincidence is, as any order of a 54 deck is a 1/54! coincidence...that no two people should ever see in all visible galaxies.

#5 · Carroll

6 Sep 2026

Speaking of Ocean11, it is a very good and complex games, a bit like the famous Nimmt6.
I think I have cracked the formula to decide if you should draw cards or fold, so expect to see my ranking go through the ceiling (If poker gods are cooperative).

#6 · Oakmoss

6 Sep 2026

My immediate thinking on the odds of that happening anywhere in a given game is that it's (4/54)(2/53)(4/52)(4/51) = 0.00001686%, since the first draw of a card in the sequence of 4 is arbitrary but then matching it is what counts, and since suit doesn't matter and no ranks repeat, and in the case of the Joker there are two identical cards. So, about 1 in every 59000 games. Not nearly as uncommon as I intuitively thought, but then probability is not known for being intuitive, haha.

The odds, of course, get a LOT smaller if we're calculating for that EXACT sequence appearing in that EXACT spot in both decks.

#7 · Carroll

7 Sep 2026

Thanks @Oakmoss, that makes sens !
And I think the first two cards were in fact drown in opposite order JkA vs AJk. which was a pleasing result for me having the Ace...