championship 26

Is the hold up on championship 26 due to the timer issue? The last game of 25 ended on October 8th.

Well it is supposed to take one week (so should have started just now), but usually it takes a few extra hours.

it started. right now.

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

I've been requested to follow twixt.ch.26.1.1 by FatPhil

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.

• Already completed matches:
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 0/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1David J Bush(2387)-_________0023.25%1.66%8.74%2dushoff(2095)_-________000.15%0.03%88.07%3maraca(2349)__-_______0015.11%1.37%14.89%4Csaba Nagy(2181)___-______001.10%0.21%68.10%5David(2064)____-_____000.06%0.02%92.44%6pete99(2119)_____-____000.26%0.06%84.39%7spd_iv(2388)______-___0023.84%1.72%9.27%8technolion(2095)_______-__000.18%0.05%89.27%9Alan Hensel(2401)________-_0027.36%1.80%7.74%10korubko(2274)_________-005.27%0.66%37.09%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Maraca's back! Will he prove my theory that taking a break from Twixt helped win the last Championship? Or will I successfully defend my title? Or could it be that the last Championship was just a blip in the rise of korubko?

The last 6 Championships have been won by 6 different people. This is a record streak. Will we extend it to 7?

Find the answers to these exciting questions in only 3-4 months!

(Sounds like a reality TV show, doesn't it? ;-)

Can we vote each other off?

Also exciting is that three players in this tourney have starting ratings that are divisible by the fourth powers of primes; a different prime in each case.

How about that! ;-)

The sum of those three ratings is twice a prime.

The sum of all 10 ratings is thrice a prime.

The sum of the ratings where N is odd (first column) is thrice a prime.

The sum of the ratings where N is prime (not counting N=1) is divisible by a sixth power.

We gotta tell Earth Files about this. :-)

OMG how nerdy is that!

0.18% chance of winning the tournament. So be prepared to meet your master, haha :P

Yeah, watch out! That's more than 3x higher than korubko's RoRoRo Low of 0.05% on 2010-03-03 in Championship 24. Less than 6 weeks later, on 2010-04-10, korubko won the Championship.

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 David
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 1/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2354)-___2_____2016.65%1.41%11.76%2David J Bush(2396)_-________0024.55%1.73%7.80%3dushoff(2095)__-_______000.13%0.03%88.46%4Csaba Nagy(2181)___-______000.97%0.22%68.66%5David(2059)0___-_____000.01%0.01%95.19%6pete99(2119)_____-____000.20%0.05%84.86%7spd_iv(2388)______-___0022.24%1.67%9.36%8technolion(2095)_______-__000.14%0.03%89.10%9Alan Hensel(2405)________-_0026.83%1.73%7.43%10korubko(2274)_________-004.89%0.65%37.37%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David 0 - 2 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 2/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1David J Bush(2401)-___2_____2026.83%1.86%6.15%2maraca(2354)_-__2_____2016.14%1.45%11.92%3dushoff(2095)__-_______000.12%0.03%88.51%4Csaba Nagy(2181)___-______000.94%0.14%68.42%5David(2056)00__-_____000.00%097.11%6pete99(2119)_____-____000.23%0.05%84.79%7spd_iv(2388)______-___0021.62%1.63%9.66%8technolion(2095)_______-__000.10%0.04%89.09%9Alan Hensel(2405)________-_0025.79%1.76%7.55%10korubko(2274)_________-004.82%0.64%36.82%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 technolion
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 3/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2359)-___2__2__4019.25%1.59%8.53%2David J Bush(2383)_-__2_____2022.42%1.78%7.88%3dushoff(2095)__-_______000.16%0.04%88.42%4Csaba Nagy(2181)___-______000.89%0.15%68.26%5David(2056)00__-_____000.00%097.03%6pete99(2119)_____-____000.23%0.04%84.57%7spd_iv(2388)______-___0022.52%1.80%9.14%8technolion(2090)0______-__000.04%0.02%92.89%9Alan Hensel(2405)________-_0026.22%1.91%7.35%10korubko(2274)_________-004.73%0.65%35.93%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 Alan Hensel
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 4/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2377)-___2__22_6038.48%2.31%1.99%2David J Bush(2383)_-__2_____2022.47%1.70%7.57%3dushoff(2095)__-_______000.12%0.02%88.09%4Csaba Nagy(2181)___-______000.97%0.15%68.06%5David(2056)00__-_____000096.96%6pete99(2119)_____-____000.22%0.05%84.28%7spd_iv(2388)______-___0021.74%1.69%9.07%8technolion(2090)0______-__000.04%0.01%92.85%9Alan Hensel(2387)0_______-_007.49%1.29%15.35%10korubko(2274)_________-004.97%0.69%35.80%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

With my loss to maraca, the top 5 players according to ELO ratings are all within a narrow 13 point range (from #1 spd_iv at 2388 to #5 Klaus at 2375). As ELO ratings go, that's almost nothing... certainly not what we were used to under Maciej and Gyorgy!

Klaus went up slightly; now it's just an 11-point range, with #5 maraca at 2377.

Well, that was short-lived.

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Alan Hensel 2 - 0 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 5/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2377)-2___2__2_6441.88%2.57%1.87%2Alan Hensel(2402)0-2_______2415.45%2.13%4.75%3David J Bush(2368)_0-__2____209.48%1.42%14.92%4dushoff(2095)___-______000.12%0.02%88.74%5Csaba Nagy(2181)____-_____001.00%0.18%68.72%6David(2056)0_0__-____000.00%097.20%7pete99(2119)______-___000.21%0.06%85.00%8spd_iv(2388)_______-__0022.89%1.78%9.53%9technolion(2090)0_______-_000.03%0.01%92.92%10korubko(2274)_________-005.00%0.73%36.35%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 6/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2392)-22__2__2_8862.58%2.20%0.21%2Alan Hensel(2402)0-2_______249.31%1.51%4.48%3David J Bush(2355)00-__2____200.52%0.27%25.26%4dushoff(2095)___-______000.13%0.04%87.41%5Csaba Nagy(2181)____-_____000.77%0.14%66.59%6David(2057)0_0__-____000.00%0.00%96.74%7pete99(2119)______-___000.20%0.04%83.71%8spd_iv(2388)_______-__0019.73%1.63%8.69%9technolion(2090)0_______-_000.01%092.12%10korubko(2274)_________-003.99%0.50%34.79%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• technolion 0 - 2 Alan Hensel
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 7/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2392)-22__2__2_81261.67%2.32%0.17%2Alan Hensel(2406)0-2_____2_4410.97%1.60%3.27%3David J Bush(2355)00-__2____200.38%0.21%24.46%4dushoff(2095)___-______000.10%0.03%87.48%5Csaba Nagy(2181)____-_____000.76%0.14%66.94%6David(2064)0_0__-____000.00%096.43%7pete99(2119)______-___000.22%0.04%83.81%8spd_iv(2388)_______-__0019.03%1.68%8.66%9technolion(2086)00______-_000094.71%10korubko(2274)_________-004.06%0.57%34.07%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• technolion 2 - 0 David
  
• David 0 - 2 Alan Hensel
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 9/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2392)-222__2___82061.21%2.38%0.19%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-22__2___6811.66%1.75%2.32%3David J Bush(2355)00-___2___200.29%0.22%26.26%4technolion(2100)00_-__2___200.00%0.00%90.05%5dushoff(2095)____-_____000.11%0.02%87.96%6Csaba Nagy(2181)_____-____000.79%0.14%66.70%7David(2047)0000__-___000099.32%8pete99(2119)_______-__000.17%0.03%83.62%9spd_iv(2388)________-_0018.82%1.79%8.84%10korubko(2274)_________-004.02%0.57%34.75%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 technolion
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 10/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2392)-2_22_2___82060.75%2.26%0.25%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-_22_2___6811.78%1.61%2.70%3Csaba Nagy(2193)__-_2_____241.20%0.19%55.17%4David J Bush(2355)00_-__2___200.38%0.19%28.06%5technolion(2088)000_-_2___200.00%0.00%96.35%6dushoff(2095)_____-____000.09%0.02%88.68%7David(2060)00_00_-___000099.19%8pete99(2119)_______-__000.19%0.04%84.37%9spd_iv(2388)________-_0018.81%1.65%9.30%10korubko(2274)_________-004.02%0.53%35.93%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pete99 0 - 2 maraca
  
• dushoff 0 - 2 Csaba Nagy
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 12/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2397)-2_22_22__102065.07%2.29%0.06%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-_22_2___689.16%1.77%2.72%3Csaba Nagy(2204)__-_22____441.86%0.32%42.55%4David J Bush(2355)00_-__2___200.20%0.21%28.33%5technolion(2088)000_-_2___200096.76%6dushoff(2084)__0__-____000.01%0.00%94.84%7David(2060)00_00_-___000099.20%8pete99(2114)0______-__000.02%0.00%89.42%9spd_iv(2388)________-_0017.37%1.73%9.45%10korubko(2274)_________-003.52%0.47%36.67%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 David
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 13/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2397)-2_22_22__102064.23%2.52%0.09%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-_22_2___689.21%1.83%2.94%3Csaba Nagy(2213)__-_222___642.41%0.59%35.28%4David J Bush(2355)00_-__2___200.20%0.26%30.75%5technolion(2088)000_-_2___200097.19%6dushoff(2084)__0__-____000.01%095.33%7David(2051)00000_-___000099.89%8pete99(2114)0______-__000.02%090.11%9spd_iv(2388)________-_0017.38%1.85%10.15%10korubko(2274)_________-003.43%0.52%38.28%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 2 - 0 pete99
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 14/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2397)-2_22_22__102464.12%2.41%0.11%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-_22_2___6129.37%1.71%2.97%3Csaba Nagy(2213)__-_222___642.50%0.50%35.75%4David J Bush(2361)00_-__22__400.30%0.30%24.53%5technolion(2088)000_-_2___200097.31%6dushoff(2084)__0__-____000.02%0.00%95.49%7David(2051)00000_-___000099.93%8pete99(2108)0__0___-__000.01%0.00%94.27%9spd_iv(2388)________-_0017.26%1.63%10.21%10korubko(2274)_________-003.49%0.51%39.42%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 2 - 0 David
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 15/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2397)-2_22__22_102463.02%2.44%0.09%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-_22__2__6129.26%1.84%3.06%3Csaba Nagy(2213)__-_2_22__642.25%0.48%36.99%4David J Bush(2369)00_-___22_400.26%0.30%23.63%5technolion(2088)000_-__2__200097.41%6spd_iv(2392)_____-_2__2018.88%1.85%8.69%7dushoff(2084)__0___-___000.01%0.00%95.72%8David(2043)000000_-__0000100.00%9pete99(2108)0__0____-_000.01%094.61%10korubko(2274)_________-003.29%0.50%39.80%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• technolion 0 - 2 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 16/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2397)-22_2__22_102863.30%2.70%0.09%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-2_2__2__6169.13%1.93%3.13%3David J Bush(2374)00-_2__22_640.38%0.43%18.73%4Csaba Nagy(2213)___-2_22__642.18%0.49%39.31%5technolion(2083)0000-__2__200099.14%6spd_iv(2392)_____-_2__2018.26%1.97%8.93%7dushoff(2084)___0__-___000.01%0.00%95.78%8David(2026)000000_-__0000100.00%9pete99(2108)0_0_____-_000.00%0.00%94.79%10korubko(2274)_________-003.45%0.59%40.11%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• dushoff 0 - 2 maraca
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 17/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-22_2_222_122866.34%2.63%0.02%2Alan Hensel(2409)0-2_2__2__6167.28%1.90%2.93%3David J Bush(2374)00-_2__22_640.22%0.39%18.17%4Csaba Nagy(2213)___-2_22__642.07%0.48%39.38%5technolion(2083)0000-__2__200099.09%6spd_iv(2392)_____-_2__2017.76%1.92%8.92%7dushoff(2080)0__0__-___0000.00%97.55%8David(2026)000000_-__0000100.00%9pete99(2108)0_0_____-_000094.57%10korubko(2274)_________-003.23%0.48%39.36%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• dushoff 0 - 2 spd_iv
  
• pete99 0 - 2 Csaba Nagy
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 19/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_2222_122863.09%2.95%0.03%2Csaba Nagy(2224)_-___2222_843.06%0.79%28.21%3Alan Hensel(2409)0_-2_2_2__6167.34%2.10%3.41%4David J Bush(2374)0_0-_2_22_640.21%0.49%21.44%5spd_iv(2396)____-_22__4019.82%2.18%7.63%6technolion(2083)0000_-_2__200099.34%7dushoff(2076)00__0_-___000098.93%8David(2026)000000_-__0000100.00%9pete99(2097)00_0____-_000098.64%10korubko(2274)_________-003.01%0.44%42.37%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Is it me or does it seem that RoRoRo is putting too much weight on ratings differences at this level?

At ~1800 I stand no chance against a 2000 player. But it doesn't seem nearly that stark for ~2200 vs. ~2400. It may just be subjective; that from my level you "all look the same to me".

A player with 2400 points should on average win about 75% of his games against players with 2200 points, just like a player with 2000 points should win about 75% of his games against players with 1800 points.

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• technolion 0 - 2 pete99
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 20/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_2222_123263.43%3.03%0.03%2Csaba Nagy(2224)_-___2222_882.95%0.77%28.54%3Alan Hensel(2409)0_-2__2_2_6167.14%2.17%3.64%4David J Bush(2374)0_0-_22_2_680.22%0.49%21.85%5spd_iv(2396)____-__22_4019.65%2.25%7.86%6pete99(2112)00_0_-2___240097.25%7technolion(2068)0000_0-_2_200099.84%8dushoff(2076)00__0__-__000098.97%9David(2026)00000_0_-_0000100.00%10korubko(2274)_________-003.00%0.53%42.03%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• dushoff 2 - 0 technolion
  
• Alan Hensel 0 - 2 pete99 <--- astonishing! [°_°]
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 22/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_222_222_124063.95%2.14%0.03%2Csaba Nagy(2224)_-__2_222_8163.74%0.64%28.35%3Alan Hensel(2382)0_-20__22_6162.65%0.86%12.70%4David J Bush(2374)0_0-2__22_6120.67%0.88%21.99%5pete99(2139)0020-__2__4160086.33%6spd_iv(2396)_____-2_2_4422.56%1.52%8.72%7dushoff(2091)00___0-2__240098.14%8technolion(2053)00000_0-2_2000100.00%9David(2026)0000_0_0-_0000100.00%10korubko(2274)_________-003.50%0.52%43.74%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David 2 - 0 dushoff
  
• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 David J Bush <--- upset!
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 24/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_222_222_124458.98%1.68%0.04%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-_22_222_10329.64%1.04%7.03%3Alan Hensel(2382)0_-20__22_6202.62%0.81%11.36%4David J Bush(2352)000-2__22_6160049.05%5pete99(2139)0020-___2_41600.00%84.91%6spd_iv(2396)_____-22__4822.99%1.33%7.93%7dushoff(2073)00___0-02_240099.11%8David(2044)0000_02-0_240099.99%9technolion(2053)00000_02-_2400100.00%10korubko(2274)_________-003.49%0.45%40.58%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• technolion 0 - 2 korubko
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 25/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_222_222_124458.37%1.64%0.02%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-_22_222_10329.51%1.19%7.84%3Alan Hensel(2382)0_-20__22_6202.87%0.77%12.07%4David J Bush(2352)000-2__22_6160051.46%5pete99(2139)0020-___2_4160085.93%6spd_iv(2396)_____-22__4822.27%1.40%8.43%7dushoff(2073)00___0-02_240099.11%8David(2044)0000_02-0_2400100.00%9technolion(2046)00000_02-02400100.00%10korubko(2281)________2-244.59%0.59%35.15%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 2 - 0 korubko
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 26/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_222_222_124860.26%1.77%0.05%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-2_2_222_10369.91%1.11%8.19%3David J Bush(2364)00-02__22282000.00%29.47%4Alan Hensel(2382)0_2-0__22_6242.86%0.77%13.66%5pete99(2139)0002-___2_4160087.70%6spd_iv(2396)_____-22__4822.69%1.31%9.72%7dushoff(2073)00___0-02_240099.25%8David(2044)0000_02-0_2400100.00%9technolion(2046)00000_02-02400100.00%10korubko(2269)__0_____2-241.98%0.29%51.96%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• korubko 2 - 0 pete99
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 27/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_222__222124858.69%1.64%0.10%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-2_2__22210369.77%1.12%9.72%3David J Bush(2364)00-022_2_28240029.51%4Alan Hensel(2382)0_2-0__2_26243.41%0.67%14.18%5pete99(2129)0002-0_2__4160095.99%6korubko(2279)__0_2-_2__4123.23%0.48%40.82%7spd_iv(2396)______-_224822.61%1.35%10.41%8technolion(2046)000000_-022400100.00%9dushoff(2073)00____02-0240099.27%10David(2044)0000__002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 2 - 0 technolion
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 28/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_2_222124856.84%1.65%0.08%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-2__2_22210369.49%1.23%9.77%3David J Bush(2364)00-0_222_28240030.28%4Alan Hensel(2382)0_2-_0_2_26243.54%0.60%14.41%5spd_iv(2399)____-__22261224.69%1.50%8.75%6pete99(2129)0002_-02__4160096.14%7korubko(2279)__0__2-2__4123.05%0.53%41.23%8technolion(2043)0000000-022400100.00%9dushoff(2073)00__0__2-0240099.34%10David(2044)00000__02-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Alan Hensel 2 - 0 dushoff
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 29/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_2_222125256.92%1.76%0.09%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-_2_2_22210369.22%1.24%10.08%3Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2_0_2228284.01%0.68%10.53%4David J Bush(2364)000-_222_28240032.08%5spd_iv(2399)____-__22261224.38%1.52%9.46%6pete99(2129)0020_-02__4200096.13%7korubko(2279)___0_2-2__4123.01%0.52%41.95%8technolion(2043)0000000-022400100.00%9dushoff(2069)000_0__2-0240099.68%10David(2031)00000__02-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• pete99 0 - 2 dushoff
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 30/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_22_22125656.83%1.50%0.10%2Csaba Nagy(2246)_-_2_22_2210409.32%1.21%10.18%3Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2_02_228324.57%0.42%9.29%4David J Bush(2364)000-_2_2228240031.50%5spd_iv(2399)____-_2_2261624.18%1.52%8.35%6pete99(2111)0020_-00_24200099.55%7dushoff(2087)000_02-_024120099.03%8korubko(2279)___0_2_-_24122.97%0.40%42.01%9David(2031)00000_2_-02800100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 0 - 2 Csaba Nagy <--- upset!
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 31/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22_22_22125659.89%1.89%0.10%2Csaba Nagy(2268)_-_2222_22125225.07%1.58%0.19%3Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2_02_228324.34%0.40%8.42%4David J Bush(2364)000-_2_2228240032.98%5spd_iv(2377)_0__-_2_226165.10%1.39%21.80%6pete99(2111)0020_-00_24200099.22%7dushoff(2087)000_02-_024120098.87%8korubko(2279)___0_2_-_24123.18%0.49%38.43%9David(2031)00000_2_-02800100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David 0 - 2 korubko
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 32/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2401)-_22__2222125659.49%1.80%0.15%2Csaba Nagy(2268)_-_2_22222125224.61%1.72%0.21%3Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2__02228324.42%0.27%9.53%4David J Bush(2364)000-2_2_228280035.42%5korubko(2285)___0-_2_226164.02%0.73%31.47%6spd_iv(2377)_0___-_2226164.97%1.46%24.49%7pete99(2111)00200_-0_24200099.44%8dushoff(2087)000__02-024120099.30%9David(2025)000000_2-02800100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 0 - 2 maraca
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 33/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2415)-_22_22222146875.93%002Csaba Nagy(2268)_-_2_22222125220.08%0.18%03Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2__02228321.17%0.00%7.08%4David J Bush(2364)000-2_2_228280028.02%5korubko(2285)___0-_2_226162.64%0.18%26.68%6spd_iv(2363)00___-_2226160039.88%7pete99(2111)00200_-0_24200099.19%8dushoff(2087)000__02-024120099.14%9David(2025)000000_2-02800100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• korubko 2 - 0 dushoff
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 34/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2415)-_22_22222146874.94%002Csaba Nagy(2268)_-2__22222125220.02%0.27%03David J Bush(2364)00-02_2_228320029.66%4Alan Hensel(2386)0_2-__02228321.25%0.00%8.42%5korubko(2292)__0_-_22228243.51%0.27%19.90%6spd_iv(2363)00___-_2226160042.63%7pete99(2111)00020_-0_24200099.39%8dushoff(2080)00_0002-0241200100.00%9David(2025)000000_2-02800100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.26.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 0 - 2 dushoff <--- astonishing! [°_°]
  

Num Players: 10

Games completed: 35/45

NPlayerRating12345678910ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2415)-_22_22222147275.11%002Csaba Nagy(2268)_-_2_22222125620.05%003Alan Hensel(2386)0_-2_2_0228361.17%0.03%6.73%4David J Bush(2325)000-20_2228320047.09%5korubko(2292)___0-2_2228283.65%0.03%16.98%6dushoff(2106)00020-020262800100.00%7spd_iv(2363)00___2-_226200030.92%8pete99(2111)002000_-_24200098.29%9David(2045)0000020_-021200100.00%10technolion(2043)000000002-2400100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

What's the threshold for "astonishing"? Is it really "astonishing" to overcome a 0.15 win expectancy? Would you say you are "astonished" to roll a 6 with a 6-sided die? I wasn't even surprised when pete99 beat me. I knew it could happen, and he played well. I once needed a triple 6 in Risk, and got it. (Odds: 1 in 216). Now *that* astonished me.

I asked the same question on the LOA forum as to the threshhold for astonishing!

Yeah, some of us have international dayjobs, sorry (he says from the middle of the baltic).

I forget the exact thresholds for the three comments, but they're probably quite easily adjustable. I'll not be awake for the next 48 hours, so if you can suggest some ratings difference thresholds (or equivalnently probabilities), I can tweak him when I reach the plane of consciousness. I think a difference of 284 in rating is quite a coup, though - don't you?

I would like him to draw attention to results that go against the grain though, so don't want him astonished by only 1 game in 1000, say. (maybe I could introduce a "well played" band where "upset" currently is, and move all comments to the right by one slot.

I want RoRoRo to be useful and appreciated, so if you have concrete suggestions, please shout. Wishy-washy ones generally are far harder to implement.