championship 27

Welcome back to Maciej! I hope everyone enjoys the show.

aack!! Bumped up from league 4 to league 3! Can I possibly stand the strain???

Back to work!

(meow)

First Maraca returns for 26, now Maciej for 27. Should be quite entertaining.

Does anybody manage to start the Monte Carlo Simulation? RoRoRo keeps ignoring my "prediction help". I like the numbers even if they don't say too much ;-)

The opinions about equal starting moves seem to have much more variation than in earlier days. My G4-mission failed last time again (only 46%), which is to improve that spot. I think it's equal and I don't believe in the grille or ripple effect. C9 or C10 and I5 are also some of my candidates for equal moves.

Strange - RoRoRo thinks that he sent you the following message:

$msg = "To get updates sent to you, use as the subject line:

\n" .

"predict _tournament_ publish=message

\n" .

"If you have permissions from Phil, then you can also ask it" .

" to be published to the forums using the syntax:

" .

"predict _tournament_ publish=forum( _id_)

\n" .

"where _tournament_ is the full tournament id, and _id_ is the" .

" topic identifier within the forum for the game in question.

\n" .

"e.g. to get me to post predictions to Twixt championship 22 to" .

" forum this thread use:

\n" .

"predict twixt.ch.22.1.1 publish=forum(208)

\n" .

"(I'm smart enough to know that twixt threads are in forum 55, so only need the topic id)

\n";

Normally when there's a problem sending messages, it's because there are multiple accounts with very similar names, but there's noone else out there called maraca, so I have no explanation why sending didn't work.

Anyway, I've given you rights to request twixt championship predictions to be sent to the forums, so please give it a go.

Thanks FatPhil I will give it a try. You are right that it doesn't work if you send messages to maraca, this original maraca account was somehow half lost in the crash and I couldn't log in again, but he was still there, so I made a new account, the one I am playing now.

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

I've been requested to follow twixt.ch.27.1.1 by maraca

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.

• Already completed matches:
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 4/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1David J Bush(2328)-_______2209.68%1.53%21.41%2Klaus Hußmanns(2423)_-______22028.32%2.36%6.80%3Maciej Celuch(2288)__-_____2205.71%1.06%32.71%4maraca(2407)___-____22023.88%2.17%9.07%5spd_iv(2411)____-____0024.11%2.15%9.50%6Hartmut(2061)_____-___000.06%0.01%93.55%7Csaba Nagy(2265)______-__003.50%0.67%46.57%8CSM(2152)_______-_000.45%0.10%80.62%9Mirko Rahn(2014)0000____-000099.76%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Glat that's at least kinda-sorts-resolved.

And welcome back Maciej - damn that looks like it's gonna be tough at the top.

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 CSM
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 5/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2412)-______224027.06%2.31%5.43%2David J Bush(2328)_-______2209.31%1.41%20.82%3Klaus Hußmanns(2427)__-_____22028.12%2.39%6.49%4Maciej Celuch(2288)___-____2205.25%0.92%32.86%5spd_iv(2411)____-____0022.62%2.16%9.19%6Hartmut(2061)_____-___000.03%0.02%93.48%7Csaba Nagy(2265)______-__003.35%0.66%45.87%8CSM(2147)0______-_000.10%0.06%86.07%9Mirko Rahn(2001)0000____-000099.79%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 Csaba Nagy
  
• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 Mirko Rahn
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 7/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Csaba Nagy(2277)-_____2_2404.98%1.12%32.12%2maraca(2412)_-_____224026.82%2.56%6.37%3David J Bush(2328)__-_____2208.87%1.43%23.46%4Klaus Hußmanns(2427)___-____22027.14%2.49%7.53%5Maciej Celuch(2288)____-___2205.18%0.98%36.83%6spd_iv(2411)_____-___0022.29%2.35%11.08%7Hartmut(2054)0_____-__000.01%0.00%96.96%8CSM(2157)_0_____-_000.14%0.06%85.66%9Mirko Rahn(1997)00000___-000099.97%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Mirko Rahn 0 - 2 CSM
  
• Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 CSM
  
• Hartmut 2 - 0 Mirko Rahn
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 10/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2298)-_____2_2447.00%1.32%24.67%2Csaba Nagy(2277)_-___2__2444.92%1.06%34.37%3maraca(2412)__-___2_24425.56%2.58%7.61%4David J Bush(2328)___-____2208.67%1.43%26.24%5Klaus Hußmanns(2427)____-___22026.98%2.67%8.79%6Hartmut(2067)_0___-__2200.03%0.02%95.12%7CSM(2156)0_0___-_2200.05%0.02%91.00%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0022.06%2.38%12.20%9Mirko Rahn(1977)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Klaus Hußmanns 2 - 0 Hartmut
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 11/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Klaus Hußmanns(2434)-____2__24429.22%2.80%5.65%2Maciej Celuch(2298)_-____2_2446.69%1.38%25.34%3Csaba Nagy(2277)__-__2__2444.58%1.07%35.13%4maraca(2412)___-__2_24424.92%2.60%7.74%5David J Bush(2328)____-___2208.19%1.52%26.62%6Hartmut(2064)0_0__-__2200.01%0.01%96.86%7CSM(2156)_0_0__-_2200.06%0.02%90.84%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0021.53%2.43%11.82%9Mirko Rahn(1980)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• maraca 2 - 0 Hartmut
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 12/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2415)-____22_26826.40%2.81%5.37%2Klaus Hußmanns(2434)_-___2__24429.26%2.74%5.63%3Maciej Celuch(2298)__-___2_2446.67%1.39%25.33%4Csaba Nagy(2277)___-_2__2444.38%1.05%35.73%5David J Bush(2328)____-___2208.11%1.50%26.82%6Hartmut(2061)00_0_-__2200098.49%7CSM(2156)0_0___-_2200.03%0.02%91.02%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0020.41%2.28%11.60%9Mirko Rahn(1981)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 Hartmut
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 13/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2304)-____22_2687.82%1.72%20.27%2maraca(2415)_-___22_26826.56%2.85%6.23%3Klaus Hußmanns(2434)__-__2__24427.94%2.88%6.27%4Csaba Nagy(2277)___-_2__2444.36%1.15%36.47%5David J Bush(2328)____-___2207.88%1.55%27.65%6Hartmut(2055)0000_-__2200099.54%7CSM(2156)00____-_2200.04%0.02%91.42%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0020.42%2.43%12.14%9Mirko Rahn(1981)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Klaus Hußmanns 2 - 0 CSM
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 14/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Klaus Hußmanns(2439)-____22_26830.98%3.13%4.22%2Maciej Celuch(2304)_-___22_2687.45%1.76%20.44%3maraca(2415)__-__22_26825.01%3.04%6.08%4Csaba Nagy(2277)___-_2__2444.22%1.18%35.70%5David J Bush(2328)____-___2207.51%1.47%26.97%6Hartmut(2055)0000_-__2200099.62%7CSM(2151)000___-_2200095.38%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0019.72%2.47%11.59%9Mirko Rahn(1982)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 15/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Klaus Hußmanns(2439)-____22_26830.87%3.09%4.17%2Maciej Celuch(2304)_-___22_2687.11%1.70%21.19%3maraca(2415)__-__22_26824.68%2.92%6.37%4David J Bush(2333)___-_2__2448.77%1.75%21.76%5Csaba Nagy(2277)____-2__2444.17%1.10%38.90%6Hartmut(2050)00000-__2200099.92%7CSM(2151)000___-_2200095.54%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0019.43%2.41%12.14%9Mirko Rahn(1982)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 0 - 2 maraca
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 16/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2427)-__2_22_281634.92%3.19%1.56%2Klaus Hußmanns(2439)_-___22_26829.45%2.87%3.91%3Maciej Celuch(2304)__-__22_2686.76%1.59%19.63%4David J Bush(2321)0__-_2__2442.19%0.90%32.35%5Csaba Nagy(2277)____-2__2443.76%1.02%36.53%6Hartmut(2050)00000-__2200099.94%7CSM(2151)000___-_2200094.90%8spd_iv(2411)_______-_0018.43%2.39%11.18%9Mirko Rahn(1982)0000000_-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 2 - 0 Mirko Rahn
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 17/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2427)-__2__22281634.78%3.34%1.55%2Klaus Hußmanns(2439)_-____2226828.84%3.21%4.05%3Maciej Celuch(2304)__-___222686.58%1.70%19.63%4David J Bush(2321)0__-__2_2442.08%0.91%32.45%5Csaba Nagy(2277)____-_2_2443.78%0.99%36.63%6spd_iv(2413)_____-__22019.12%2.65%10.42%7Hartmut(2050)00000_-_2200099.93%8CSM(2151)000____-22000.00%95.34%9Mirko Rahn(1980)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• CSM 2 - 0 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 18/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1maraca(2427)-__22__2282034.21%2.84%1.22%2Klaus Hußmanns(2439)_-_2___2261230.27%3.07%3.27%3Maciej Celuch(2304)__-2___226127.16%1.63%16.27%4CSM(2174)000-2___24800.01%80.36%5David J Bush(2298)0__0-__22440.66%0.20%55.30%6Csaba Nagy(2277)_____-_22443.89%1.00%34.15%7spd_iv(2413)______-_22019.32%2.63%9.60%8Hartmut(2050)000_00_-2200099.83%9Mirko Rahn(1989)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 maraca
  
• maraca 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 20/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2325)-2__2__2282820.68%3.01%4.71%2maraca(2385)0-0_22_228201.89%1.97%15.54%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262012.47%2.35%13.51%4Klaus Hußmanns(2439)___-2__2261235.36%2.92%5.08%5CSM(2174)00_0-2__24800.01%87.51%6David J Bush(2298)_0__0-_22441.37%0.15%61.82%7spd_iv(2413)______-_22022.83%2.51%11.86%8Hartmut(2050)0000_0_-2200099.98%9Mirko Rahn(1989)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 2 - 0 Klaus Hußmanns
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 21/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2325)-2___2_2282824.44%3.55%7.28%2maraca(2385)0-02_2_228242.94%2.35%19.85%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262014.78%2.83%18.64%4David J Bush(2320)_0_-20_226165.94%0.61%30.65%5Klaus Hußmanns(2417)___0-2_2261218.78%3.98%17.37%6CSM(2174)00_20-__241200.03%89.98%7spd_iv(2413)______-_22026.08%2.95%16.24%8Hartmut(2050)00000__-2200099.99%9Mirko Rahn(1989)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• CSM 0 - 2 Hartmut
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 22/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2325)-2___22_283224.04%3.17%7.31%2maraca(2385)0-02_22_28282.58%2.07%18.56%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-___2_262415.37%2.66%16.89%4David J Bush(2320)_0_-202_26206.14%0.37%28.60%5Klaus Hußmanns(2417)___0-22_261618.36%4.03%17.33%6CSM(2153)00_20-0_24120096.38%7Hartmut(2071)000002-_2480099.95%8spd_iv(2413)_______-22026.94%2.83%14.98%9Mirko Rahn(1989)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Hartmut 0 - 2 spd_iv
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 23/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2325)-2___2_2283222.68%3.21%7.62%2maraca(2385)0-02_2_228282.70%2.13%19.17%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262415.18%2.68%16.93%4David J Bush(2320)_0_-20_226206.11%0.35%29.00%5Klaus Hußmanns(2417)___0-2_2261617.80%3.92%18.16%6CSM(2153)00_20-_024120096.18%7spd_iv(2416)______-224829.00%2.90%12.94%8Hartmut(2068)0000020-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(1989)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 David J Bush
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 24/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2340)-2_2_2_22104435.14%2.51%02maraca(2385)0-02_2_228280.92%1.64%15.93%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262413.52%2.55%14.38%4David J Bush(2305)00_-20_2262000.01%49.11%5Klaus Hußmanns(2417)___0-2_2261617.82%3.36%14.23%6CSM(2153)00_20-_024120095.68%7spd_iv(2416)______-224826.94%2.59%10.67%8Hartmut(2068)0000020-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(1991)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Klaus Hußmanns 0 - 2 maraca
  
• Klaus Hußmanns 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 26/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2359)-2_222_22126058.47%2.18%02maraca(2401)0-0222_22104001.46%0.34%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262812.65%1.73%8.32%4David J Bush(2305)00_-20_226200038.51%5Klaus Hußmanns(2386)00_0-2_226160052.55%6CSM(2153)00_20-_024120092.53%7spd_iv(2418)______-224825.61%2.83%7.75%8Hartmut(2068)0000020-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(1991)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• CSM 0 - 2 spd_iv
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 27/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2359)-2_22_222126055.05%2.37%02maraca(2401)0-022_222104001.63%0.42%3Csaba Nagy(2298)_2-____2262811.83%1.80%8.38%4David J Bush(2307)00_-2_0226200035.86%5Klaus Hußmanns(2387)00_0-_2226160051.93%6spd_iv(2424)_____-22261629.54%3.06%5.46%7CSM(2161)00_200-024120097.95%8Hartmut(2068)0000002-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2014)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 0 - 2 Csaba Nagy
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 28/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2359)-2_22_222126060.06%1.54%02maraca(2401)0-022_222104000.31%0.45%3Csaba Nagy(2319)_2-__2_2284031.61%1.23%0.24%4David J Bush(2308)00_-2_0226200036.47%5Klaus Hußmanns(2387)00_0-_2226160050.65%6spd_iv(2403)__0__-2226166.78%1.09%14.27%7CSM(2161)00_200-024120097.91%8Hartmut(2068)0000002-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2014)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• Csaba Nagy 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 29/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2373)-2222_222147691.11%1.31%02maraca(2401)0-022_22210400003Csaba Nagy(2305)02-__2_2284001.31%0.38%4David J Bush(2308)00_-2_0226200036.06%5Klaus Hußmanns(2387)00_0-_2226160050.57%6spd_iv(2403)__0__-2226167.59%1.31%14.81%7CSM(2143)00_200-024120098.17%8Hartmut(2068)0000002-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2015)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• David J Bush 2 - 0 Csaba Nagy
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 30/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2373)-2222_222148091.25%002maraca(2401)0-022_22210440003Csaba Nagy(2290)02-0_2_22840001.07%4David J Bush(2323)002-2_0228360014.35%5Klaus Hußmanns(2387)00_0-_2226160064.90%6spd_iv(2403)__0__-2226168.75%019.68%7CSM(2143)00_200-0241600100.00%8Hartmut(2068)0000002-24800100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2019)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• CSM 2 - 0 Csaba Nagy
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 31/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2373)-22222_22148491.18%002maraca(2401)0-0222_2210480003Csaba Nagy(2268)02-00_222840003.36%4David J Bush(2323)002-02_228360015.15%5CSM(2165)0022-000263200100.00%6Klaus Hußmanns(2387)00_02-_226200061.74%7spd_iv(2403)__0_2_-226208.82%019.75%8Hartmut(2068)0000200-241200100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2019)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

ive just resigned to Klaus, congrats brother!

Tournament: twixt.ch.27.1.1

Newly completed matches:

• spd_iv 0 - 2 Klaus Hußmanns
  
• Csaba Nagy 2 - 0 Klaus Hußmanns
  

Num Players: 9

Games completed: 33/36

NPlayerRating123456789ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Maciej Celuch(2373)-22222_221492100.00%002Csaba Nagy(2289)0-202022210560003maraca(2401)00-222_2210520004David J Bush(2323)020-20_228440005Klaus Hußmanns(2390)0000-22228320074.75%6CSM(2161)02020-00263600100.00%7spd_iv(2386)_0__02-226200025.25%8Hartmut(2068)0000020-241200100.00%9Mirko Rahn(2019)00000000-0000100.00%

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Yes, congratulations to Michal's brother! :-)

Congrats Maciej!

Congrats, Maciej! 3rd player in a row to take a break from Twixt, then come back and win the Championship.

Congrats Maciej!