Survey for Twixt players rated at least 2000

Suppose you played an extended match against someone with whom you're evenly matched. You play without the swap rule, and you play six games going first and six games going second. Of the twelve games in all, how many would you expect to be won by the first player?

I expect that 12/12 are won by the first player. Mistakes are always possible, but I think it should be at least 10/12.

I agree with maraca.

I wonder if the answer is as high at the 2000 level as it is at the 2300 level. I think among patzers like myself, the answer would be 10, or maybe 9.

I posted a rough sketch of a winning plan without swap on BoardGameGeek. This assumes the opening moves 1.L12 2.L8