#1 · David J Bush
16 Sep 2023
I make some assumptions here. First, a tournament outcome of a clear winner is preferable to a tie. This is certainly debatable. There's no money at stake as far as I know. Players might not have much emotional investment in whether they win a tournament or not. I'm also a bit hazy with my statistics.
Twixt has two properties that might differentiate it from other games here: high volatility and rare draw outcomes. I intend to use the term volatility the same way the Glicko-2 rating system does. It refers to a player whose game results often differ from the result predicted by the difference in ratings compared to the opponent. It can also refer to the game itself. I believe the dense move branches generally lead to more mistakes made compared to other games. IMO Hex, by way of comparison, is less volatile, although draws are even rarer than with Twixt.
In the 66 League 1 championships that were single-game matches between each pair of opponents, there were no 2-way ties for first place. 4 of them ended in a 3-way tie, and 3 of those ties happened in the first 5 tournaments. I'm not sure why it turned out like that for those early tourneys. Maybe players were generally weaker then? At any rate, here we are in Championship 67 and a 2-way tie is the inevitable outcome. Of course Cosimo fully deserves credit for his achievement. I just wonder how many more 2-way ties we will see, if the double-game format continues.
Maybe a single-game format would be statistically more likely to end with a clear winner. There's also the increased workload that playing twice as many games incurs, which of course applies to all games. What does everyone else think?